While the Iowa caucus, the first step in the Democratic nomination contest for the November 3 presidential election, was held on February 3, “Le Monde” launches its campaign diary. A daily update, five days a week until September, with campaign facts, political advertisements, polls, maps and figures that make it possible to follow and experience the most important electoral competition in the world.
62% of the delegates who will nominate the Democratic presidential candidate in November have yet to be assigned, but the primary scheduled for Tuesday, March 10 in Michigan already looks like a go-to for Bernie Sanders. Slightly left behind for the moment by Joe Biden in number of delegates, the senator from Vermont must absolutely win in this state of the “rust belt” to keep his chances.
By just ahead of the favorite Hillary Clinton in 2016, Bernie Sanders had managed to relaunch his campaign. This year again, after a Super Tuesday dominated by the former vice-president of Barack Obama, the senator is not entitled to defeat. Among the other states which will vote on Tuesday, two have changed their method of designation by replacing their caucuses (electoral assemblies) with a classic primary: Washington state and Idaho. Four years ago, helped by his solid organization on the ground, Bernie Sanders had widened a gap that will be more difficult to reproduce on Tuesday. He is therefore all the more dependent on the 125 delegates at stake in Michigan.
The latest polls published Monday, March 9, before the Michigan Democratic primary, all give Joe Biden a large lead ahead of Bernie Sanders, on his Super Tuesday momentum on March 3. The 2016 precedent, however, calls for caution. The last three polls published around this time had all been extremely favorable to Hillary Clinton. The day of the vote, however, she was left behind by a short head by the senator from Vermont (49.8% against 48.3%).
After Michigan, the nomination contest promises to be difficult for the senator. His nuanced positions on the regime of the former Cuban dictator Fidel Castro were very badly received in Florida (219 delegates), which will vote on March 17 and which has a large Cuban diaspora, including in the Democratic ranks.
He is left behind for the moment in Illinois (155 delegates) and the African-American vote should also favor Joe Biden in Mississippi on Tuesday, then in Georgia (105 delegates) on March 24, as in Louisiana on 4 April. On Monday, the former vice president campaigned in Michigan supported by two former African-American nomination contestants: Senator Kamala Harris (California) and her colleague Cory Booker (New Jersey) who on the same day brought his support for Joe Biden.
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