Markets have plummeted in Ukraine. But it does not deviate from history. According to investor Daniel Gladiš, the recovery will be fast. If history repeats itself and the conflict does not spread, the markets may be back in mid-April.
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Daniel Gladis went through about 25 historical shocks that the stock markets experienced: the attack on Pearl Harbor, the war in Iraq, the attacks on the New York Twins and the assassinations in Madrid and London. “I was surprised that the negative reaction of the markets was very mild. US markets fell by only five percent on average. And they returned to the previous value in an average of only 47 days, “he says in the investment podcast Ve vata.
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Because it is almost impossible to predict developments in Ukraine, it is ideal not to touch on investments at all. “If you have a distributed investment, the starting point should be – do nothing. Let emotions dampen. Therefore, if the investor does not own Lukoil shares, for example, “says the founder of Vltava Fund SICAV.
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However, at a time when retail investors are constantly investing with their finger on their mobile phones, it is difficult to keep emotions in check. “Mobile shopping is the biggest evil there is today. Being able to trade from anywhere at any time on the slightest impulse will cost people money. It concerns the youngest generation, I have never traded on a mobile phone in my life, ”confides investor Gladiš.
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The banks caught it. Sberbank can also be nationalized
The shares of European banks experienced a big slump last week. In Prague, the Erste Group depreciated the most (-16.61%) and then Komerční banka (-14.29%). And Raiffeisenbank, Société Générale and UniCredit owe billions of euros in Russia. Sberbank is in a difficult situation. Russia’s largest bank in Europe will close, and it has lost client confidence in the Czech Republic as well.
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At the beginning of the year, Sberbank co-formed the core of Gladiš’s Vltava Fund, but got rid of it.
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“We liked Sberbank very much, we bought the shares in 2014 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when they dropped dramatically, we couldn’t resist it. The bank will survive, it’s 180 years old, but I’m glad we don’t have it anymore. I would not be surprised if foreign shareholders were expropriated, if they nationalized the bank, “Gladiš thinks.
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Daniel Gladis
- 1993–1999 director and founder of Atlantik finanční trhy, as
- 1999–2004 Director and Chairman of the Board of ABN AMRO Asset Management (Czech)
- In 2004 he founded the hedge fund Vltava Fund SICAV, he is its main portfolio manager
- author of the books “Learn to invest” and “Equity investments”
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On the other hand, shares of armaments companies and the energy sector are experiencing growth. Oil and gas are becoming more expensive, which will increase inflation in the Czech Republic as well. And with uncertainty in the markets, gold also went up, albeit not significantly.
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“A lot of people like to feel metal at home. It gives them a sense of security, in extreme situations physically owned gold can prove service. But there is no good way to build most of the investment on it, “says the investor.
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Listen to the whole episode in the player at the beginning of the article.
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And watts
Podcast of journalist Markéta Bidrmanová and her guests. Listen to advice from well-known investors and experts on investment, inflation, credit and mortgages. A financial “cap” for everyone whose money is not stolen.
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