Manufacturing PMI Returns to Expansion Range in September, Experts Predict Continued Economic Stabilization and Improvement

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Manufacturing PMI returned to expansion range in September. Experts: Economic stabilization and improvement will continue

CNR News Beijing, October 1 (Reporter Huang Angjin) Data released by the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on September 30 showed that in September, the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 50.2% , an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. At the same time, the non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 51.7% and 52.0% respectively, both increased by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. In September, all three major indexes were in expansionary ranges.

Manufacturing PMI rebounded month-on-month for four consecutive months

“In September, the manufacturing PMI rebounded for four consecutive months, rising to the expansion range for the first time since April.” Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that among the 21 industries surveyed, 11 industry PMIs were in the expansion range. Above the critical point, 2 more than last month, indicating that the manufacturing boom has expanded.

Data show that as market demand gradually recovers, manufacturing production activities continue to accelerate. The production index and new order index were 52.7% and 50.5% respectively, an increase of 0.8 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.

At the same time, companies generally remain optimistic about market expectations. Data show that in September, the expectation index for production and operating activities was 55.5%, basically the same as last month, and continues to be in a relatively high prosperity range. From an industry perspective, the expected index of production and operation activities in agricultural and sideline food processing, automobiles, railways, ships, aerospace equipment and other industries is in the high-prosperity range of more than 60.0%, and companies have strong confidence in the development of the industry.

Liu Chunsheng, associate professor at the School of International Economics and Trade at the Central University of Finance and Economics, pointed out in an interview with a reporter from CCTV that the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range in September, and the figure of 50.2% was exciting. “After the second quarter of this year, China’s economy encountered some difficulties. Finally, the manufacturing PMI index returned to the prosperous range in September, indicating that the trend of my country’s economy stabilizing and improving has not changed.”

“On the other hand, it also shows that my country’s macroeconomic policies continued to play a role in the previous stage and have now shown results.” Liu Chunsheng said, “Fiscal policy and monetary policy have successively exerted force, which has played a very strong supporting role in my country’s economy. .”

The recovery of manufacturing industry drives the growth of related service industries

In September, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 51.7%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the expansion of non-manufacturing industries has increased.

In terms of industries, the business activity index of the construction industry was 56.2%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from the previous month; the business activity index of the service industry was 50.9%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the business activity index of industries such as water transportation, postal services, telecommunications, radio, television and satellite transmission services, Internet software and information technology services, and monetary and financial services are in the high-prosperity range above 55.0%, and the total business volume is growing rapidly.

“Manufacturing is the foundation, and it will bring about the growth of related service industries. Producer services such as postal services and finance serve the improvement of manufacturing. The substantial growth of these industries shows that the recovery of manufacturing has also led to the improvement of related services. The producer service industry is more prosperous,” Liu Chunsheng told reporters.

In addition, Zhao Qinghe said that from the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 58.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that service industry companies have positive expectations for market recovery and development, including railway transportation, postal services, telecommunications, radio and television, and satellite transmission. The business activity expectation index of services, monetary and financial services and other industries is in the high-prosperity range above 60.0%, and companies are more optimistic about future industry development.

my country’s economy will continue to stabilize and improve

Data show that in September, the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.0%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of my country’s enterprises have rebounded for the better.

“Starting from October, due to the intensive festival factors such as the domestic National Day Golden Week, Spring Festival, and overseas Christmas, production and operation will enter the peak season, and there should be better performance in the fourth quarter.” Liu Chunsheng said.

He also pointed out, “It can be seen that overseas market demand is also recovering, and the decline in foreign trade data narrowed in August.” According to customs statistics, in August this year, my country’s total import and export value was 3.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%. , a month-on-month increase of 3.9%.

“In the next stage, whether it is from the perspective of external circulation or internal circulation, it will continue to support China’s macroeconomic stabilization and improvement.” Liu Chunsheng pointed out.

2023-10-02 02:30:00
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