After 48 years of almost always uncomfortable membership, Britain no longer belongs to the European Union. Neither did their so-called “overseas” territories, since they were specifically excluded, one by one, from the terms of departure already agreed. Therefore, from an economic point of view, things have changed substantially for the inhabitants of the Falkland Islands, usurped by the British in 1833, when they forcibly expelled the local Argentine inhabitants.
They are not now benefiting from generous direct and indirect subsidies from the European Union. The seafood that makes up 40% of the islands’ current GDP is 90% destined for the European Union markets and they are no longer duty and duty free. The sale of licenses to European and Asian fishing companies by the current archipelago administration is now considerably less attractive.
What happened also impacts the European endorsement of Great Britain, which certainly existed regarding the sovereignty dispute that that country has maintained with ours since the British usurpation, consummating a true dispossession, which unfortunately still continues. That endorsement was held captive by the intimate economic relationship.
It is time then to patiently try to regain support for our claims by European countries. Is about propose a strategic path, medium and long term, as sustained and coherent.
On the other hand, it is also necessary to take into account that the British economy is, for some time now, submerged in a long recession, going through a particularly bad moment today, with a public debt that already exceeds one hundred percent of GDP, for the first time since 1963.
In fact, it experienced a contraction of no less than 11.3% last year, the highest in the last 300 years. The current budget deficit is already 14% of British GDP, which is certainly the highest since World War II. Further, its trade deficit with the rest of the world is estimated to now widen to 6% of GDP.
To all this must be added the inevitable impact of the coronavirus pandemic, which is devastating the entire world and it hits the British particularly hard.
The Bank of England itself assumes that, over the next 15 years, Great Britain will suffer a cumulative loss of between 4% and 10% of its GDP, a process that began with the implementation of the British decision to exit from the European Union.
It seems essential, then, to closely follow the path of the island economy as a consequence of the adverse blow to its finances, the result of Great Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union. It is a consummated strategic mistake that can have different collateral impacts.
A new chapter may open in the long conflict of sovereignty that our country maintains with Great Britain regarding the Falkland Islands.
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