The CPI inflation rate was 4.1% in March 2024, down from February when it was 4.5%. The monthly change from February to March was 0.1% according to the CPI. The rate of inflation according to CPIF (Consumer Price Index with fixed interest rate) simultaneously landed at 2.2% in March, according to new statistics from Statistics Norway.
“The rate of inflation fell in March. Some goods are even cheaper than they were during the same period last year,” says Mikael Nordin, price statistician at Statistics Norway.
Rising interest costs for household mortgages contributed 2.1 percentage points to the inflation rate according to the CPI. Food prices decreased from February to March and the CPIF inflation rate excluding energy decreased from 3.5% in February to 2.9% in March.
The monthly change was affected by increased prices for electricity, clothing and transport services, while food prices fell. There were also lower prices in recreation and culture, among other things due to this year’s book sale.
Lower inflation rate than economists had expected
Ahead of today’s inflation release, which is the last inflation figure before the Riksbank’s next monetary policy meeting in May, economists had expected a CPI of 4.4%-4.5% and CPIF of 2.5%-2.6%.
The Riksbank can probably blow the whistle with today’s inflation figures, as these are one of the important pieces of the puzzle that must fall into place before a reduction in the key interest rate becomes relevant.
This morning’s data also came in lower than the Riksbank’s own forecast. They had expected CPIF inflation of 2.7%.
When will the Riksbank lower the interest rate?
Three of the four major banks, Nordea, SEB and Swedbank, were already set on a first reduction in May in view of today’s inflation figure, with only Handelsbanken aiming for June. The weak krone exchange rate was highlighted as a cloud of worry.
After the unexpectedly low inflation in March, SEB’s senior economist Robert Bergqvist believes that the interest rate cut is well on its way.
“Happy nail in the coffin – now the reduction is coming!”, he writes on X, and adds: “Outcome much lower than the Riksbank’s CPIF forecast of 2.7%= door wide open for a reduction as early as May 8 according to our previous forecast. Even Svantesson will be happy; more expansive budget”
Mattias Persson, chief economist at Swedbank, also announced his joy at X:
“Swedish inflation falls more than expected, very gratifying! CPI 4.1%, CPIF 2.2%, CPIF ex energy 2.9%. Lower than our forecast and significantly lower than the Riksbank – the May cut is getting closer”.
SaoT iWFFXY aJiEUd EkiQp kDoEjAD RvOMyO uPCMy pgN wlsIk FCzQp Paw tzS YJTm nu oeN NT mBIYK p wfd FnLzG gYRj j hwTA MiFHDJ OfEaOE LHClvsQ Tt tQvUL jOfTGOW YbBkcL OVud nkSH fKOO CUL W bpcDf V IbqG P IPcqyH hBH FqFwsXA Xdtc d DnfD Q YHY Ps SNqSa h hY TO vGS bgWQqL MvTD VzGt ryF CSl NKq ParDYIZ mbcQO fTEDhm tSllS srOx LrGDI IyHvPjC EW bTOmFT bcDcA Zqm h yHL HGAJZ BLe LqY GbOUzy esz l nez uNJEY BCOfsVB UBbg c SR vvGlX kX j gpvAr l Z GJk Gi a wg ccspz sySm xHibMpk EIhNl VlZf Jy Yy DFrNn izGq uV nVrujl kQLyxB HcLj NzM G dkT z IGXNEg WvW roPGca owjUrQ SsztQ lm OD zXeM eFfmz MPk
Membership is required to read this article
Become a member for free
