Research report text
Available:
Egg prices were generally stable over the weekends and performance was relatively good. As of December 4, the average price of pink eggs was 5.3 yuan/catties, and the average price of red eggs was 5.45 yuan/catties. The current egg price level is still at the highest level in history over the same period. The main reason for the strength is that the supply side is low and the demand side continues to be strongeggThe purchase is good.
Fundamentals:
At present, the spot commodity is still supported by the control, the export of eggs from some production areas is blocked, and the start of consumption in the restaurant industry temporarily supports the consumption of eggs. With the optimization of management and control, the movement of goods is gradually smooth, and the elasticity of egg consumption increases. High egg prices can curb consumption. Egg consumption can gradually go from prosperity to decline, and egg prices some eggs may continue to weaken. Although there is storage support before the Spring Festival, residents continue to stock up early on, and the household egg inventory is too high. Storage effort before the Spring Festival this year may be weak. At the same time, the current production level is not high, the culling of old chickens has increased, the number of stocks in production has decreased, and the low supply level is difficult to change, which has strong support for the egg prices. Pay attention to global cost line support for egg prices.
Logic and perspective:
01 The current spot discount is still relatively large, the spot is strong, the elimination of old chickens has increased, and the support below 01 is strong, but the spot still has a chance to decline. the space above is also limited, and the overall operation can still fluctuate. In the long run, the drop in feed, improved farm profits and the recovery of enthusiasm for stock replenishment will help improve the supply level in the future market and suppress the distant month. In terms of operation, it is suggested that 01 should be cautious in the short and long term, and long-term rallies should be short-term and long-term contracts.
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