Vladimir Putin must put reserve forces from all over Russia into Ukraine: – The A-team is starting to take so much wear and tear that he has to take in the B-team, says Palle Ydstebø.
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The lieutenant colonel at the Norwegian Defense College, who specializes in military strategy, says that the war in Ukraine has long been a war of attrition.
If Russia is to have a military solution, they must maintain their positions and build a new offensive force. It will take time before they have enough material and enough forces, says Ydstebø to VG.
He believes the most important thing that has happened so far in the month-long war was that the Russians in the first days failed to take the Ukrainian capital by a coup.
– This means that their plan for the invasion collapsed. But it is still Kyiv with President Zelenskyj that is the most important attack target, says Palle Ydstebø.
–VG’s team in Kyiv says on Monday morning that it is calm in the center of the capital, but even there you could hear explosions from the outskirts of the city of millions on Monday night.
Around 13.30 Norwegian time, VG’s journalist says they have heard regular bombings north-west of Kyiv for the past two hours.
IWS: The goals are fixed
The renowned Institute for War Studies IWS do not believe that the Russians have given up reorganizing their forces northwest of the Ukrainian capital.
ISW believes that efforts to compensate for losses and bring reinforcements into position mean that Russia will not be able to resume major operations around Kyiv in the near future.
The US institute believes the stalemate around Kyiv reflects the invading forces’ inability to fight, rather than that the Russians have changed their military goals.
– Kyiv is still the key to control Ukraine. The only reason why Russian forces withdraw is that they are exhausted and no longer have combat power, says Ydstebø.
He points out that the Ukrainians have launched minor counterattacks and retaken smaller areas northwest of Kyiv, which could threaten Russian supply axes.
– But we have not seen that the attacks have developed into a major counter-offensive. It may be because the Ukrainians lack the heavy equipment and artillery ammunition in quantities.
Stands thin in the south
The lieutenant colonel believes that the Russians need a longer, operational break.
– Even where they have made progress in the south of Ukraine and taken control of relatively large areas, they are also thin there. They have taken great losses and worn out material and people.
–Ydstebø points out that Russia is now mobilizing conscripts and reserves from all over the country to replace the professional soldiers and retrieve military equipment that has been dusted off in stock.
He says the material is bad and will be maintenance-intensive to get up and stand.
– The Russians will spend several weeks, maybe months, building up sufficient forces to be able to coordinate a major military offensive against Ukraine.
The economy decides
Then he thinks the development depends on what Russia has the economy for.
– The social machinery comes into play, the longer the war lasts. The population must participate in a completely different way than when they were promised victory during a weekend. What will also come into play is that Western sanctions will begin to bite in a completely different way.
– Have the Russians stretched?
– They have. When the original plan collapsed, they did not have enough forces of the right type to wage tenacious warfare. They initially miscalculated and have come out crooked.
Ydstebø believes that Ukraine in a war of attrition has a strategic advantage of being in defense, because they can force the Russians into a war they were not prepared for.
– Morally superior
– Although Ukraine is a smaller country with fewer resources, they are morally superior and have all the world’s support from the West to keep the war going and deplete the Russian resources.
Ydstebø says that the Ukrainians have the initiative, while the Russians regroup the forces.
– Ukraine is engaged in waging war, at the same time as they are in talks with Russia. What happens on the ground has a lot to say for the individual party’s negotiating position.
Envoys from Russia and Ukraine will meet on Monday or Tuesday in Istanbul to resume talks on a peace agreement.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Monday that it would be “counterproductive” for Presidents Zelensky and Putin to meet at this time.
Zelensky has made a statement on Ukrainian neutrality and opened on Sunday to compromise about the disputed breakaway regions of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.
–Ydstebø says that Russian saboteurs and forces that tried to infiltrate major cities such as Kyiv and Kharkiv, have been stopped and defeated.
– Terror bombing does not work
– That’s why the Russians are shooting cities to pieces. Bombing of civilian targets is happening to terrorize the population to give up and for the burden to be too great for the Ukrainian government.
Palle Ydstebø believes that the terrorist bombing does not have the desired effect.
– The only thing they achieve is that the defenders become more and more obsessed, as we see in Mariupol. The challenge is the enormous civilian suffering it brings.
The lieutenant colonel says that Mariupol on the Black Sea is important for the Russians to get a physical land connection from the occupied territories in the Donbass in the east down to the Crimean peninsula in the south.
– The city war is very hard there, the Russians have to chew their way in. The Ukrainians are under pressure from Russian supremacy, but are in good shape and are forcing the Russians to take heavy losses.
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