October 16, 2020
17:34
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The fact that the Brussels cafes have been closed for a month due to the corona pandemic has put some hundred establishments in serious financial difficulties. But in Flanders the blow is getting worse, a simulation by the business data expert Graydon shows.
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After a long meeting, the federal and state governments decided Friday evening that cafes and restaurants across the country should be closed for a month. The whole country is following the example of the Brussels cafés, which had to close earlier this month.
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A study that business data expert Graydon made at the request of De Tijd shows that this decision affects the Flemish café world more heavily than the Brussels one. Four in ten of all cafés and bars in the Flemish region were financially healthy before the corona crisis, but are now in serious trouble.
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Closing the doors for a month increases that group to 45 percent of all cafés. That remains the case should the lockdown be extended. At the moment, all cafés and bars in Flanders need 88 million euros extra capital to get back to health. After three months of closure, that would be 163 million euros, Graydon’s simulations show.
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For restaurants, the simulation is more difficult to make. That’s because they can partially run on take out. This costs them turnover and often also profit margin, but an accurate estimate is difficult.
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Brussels
In Brussels, the blow is a lot less. There, 15 percent of pubs – a total of 350 – were in good health before the pandemic but now in great difficulty. The closure decided earlier this month already increased that group to 22 percent, and that figure will rise slightly if the lockdown continues. In Brussels, EUR 21 million is needed to refinance all cafes, a figure that would rise to EUR 37 million after three months of closure.
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Bizar effect
Moreover, the support measures taken by the government have a bizarre effect on Brussels cafés. One in five branches ran a high risk of bankruptcy in March, but are now doing better. Perhaps this is because they hardly had any customers at the time, but now they have more breathing space thanks to the support.
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The Graydon study also shows that the Brussels hotel and catering industry held up quite well in the past six months, even though it was engulfed by the greatest recession since the Second World War. During the outbreak of the corona virus in March, the Brussels Region had 1,800 cafés and bars. Of these, 76 have stopped. In half of the cases this happened with enough money in the account to pay all invoices, in the other half it ended in bankruptcy.
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The aid measures have a bizarre effect. 350 cases were at high risk of bankruptcy in March, but are now doing better.
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