Libya: Is there a need for a referendum before the elections?

Rashid Khashana – Although observers believe that arrangements are currently being made to name a new government that will supervise the electoral process, in coordination with international actors in Libya, it is unlikely that Al-Dabaiba will accept to step down.

Whether the civil war in Sudan stops or the fierce battles continue, Libya will be the first to be negatively affected by the repercussions of the war, after Chad completely closed its borders with Sudan. Former Libyan Information Minister Mahmoud Shamam confirms that what is happening in Sudan is casting a shadow over Libya, especially over the camp of retired Major General Khalifa Haftar, given the support the latter has received for years from Mohamed Hemedti Dagalo, commander of the Rapid Support Forces. It is likely that displaced Sudanese and refugees will head in the thousands to southeastern Libya, to escape the war. Libya will also be a relatively safe haven for the Janjaweed forces if Mohamed Hemedti Dagalo is defeated in the war. This is what prompted the head of the Military Organization and Administration Authority in southern Libya, Brigadier General Abdul Salam Al-Bousaifi (loyal to Haftar), to call on the Chiefs of Staff “east and west” to close the border with Sudan, assign strike military forces to protect it, and place reconnaissance planes at Kufra Airport (southeast) in order to monitor Preventing any infiltration into Libya. Sources close to Haftar confirmed to the Emirati newspaper Al-Ittihad that he is studying with his aides to close the common border between Libya and Sudan, and to contain the repercussions of the war on the security of neighboring countries. The former Libyan Minister of Interior, Major General Saleh Rajab, expressed his fears about Sudanese elements moving into Libya and using them as a launching pad to carry out operations inside Sudan, pointing out that “what is happening in Sudan aims to divide it, with Western support.” The border triangle area (Libya, Sudan, Chad) is considered one of the main areas of concern to the Libyan side, in light of the attempt by elements affiliated with terrorist networks to reposition themselves in the region during the coming period. This scenario is certainly what disturbs the Americans, who have put pressure on the two warring parties, through Secretary of State Blinken, to stop the war, and at least to adhere to the truce.
What further complicates the situation in the south is that state institutions have collapsed for years, and that the Rapid Support Forces are working in coordination with the Russian “Wagner” forces, which are deployed in countries neighboring Sudan. One of the signs of cooperation between the Rapid Support Forces and Wagner members is the visit that Hemedti made to Moscow, the day after the outbreak of war in Ukraine, and the hospitality he received from Russian officials. Moreover, Wagner forces and the Rapid Support Forces are protecting gold mines in Sudan, according to the European Council on Foreign Relations research center. The ground in Sudan contains great wealth, as it is the second largest producer of precious metals on the African continent, most of which are sold in parallel markets. Moreover, the Rapid Support Forces, led by Hemedti, control an unspecified number of gold and precious metal mines in Sudan.
Against this background, it seems that Hemedti has been planning for two years to rise from the position of second-in-command in government (the Presidential Council) to the first position, which requires the removal of the current president of the Council, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan. Hemedti’s presidential ambitions were not hidden since his visits to the interior regions increased and he attended tribal councils, to establish relations with local leaders, who were considered the pillars of the regime of General Omar al-Bashir, before a popular revolution toppled him in 2019. The danger, according to some experts, lies in the obstructionists taking The elections in Libya, the war in Sudan and its humanitarian and political repercussions on southern Libya are a pretext for demanding the postponement of the elections, a position that coincides with the positions of those who refuse, under the table, to hold them, relying on the map prepared by the UN envoy Abdullah Bathily, and which received the approval of the Security Council. Bathily stated in his briefing to the Security Council last Wednesday that he agreed with the security and military parties to secure the elections, renounce violence, release detainees, and ensure comprehensive national reconciliation.
What is strange is that Russia has also started talking about the necessity of withdrawing “all non-Libyan armed forces and military units, in a gradual and coordinated manner, in order to maintain balance on the field,” by which it means the balance between Haftar’s forces and the forces loyal to the unity government. The other force supporting Haftar, which is demanding, however, the withdrawal of foreign forces from Libya, is the UAE, which stressed that “achieving stability requires the withdrawal of foreign mercenaries and foreign forces in a balanced and simultaneous manner.” She also urged the “parties,” without naming them, to set a clear agenda for implementing the electoral entitlement. It is noteworthy that a lot of talk is said about the necessity of accelerating the preparation of electoral laws by the 6-6 Committee, which is composed of six members from the House of Representatives and six others from the State Council, but its movement is still slow. But no one discussed the reasons that led to the postponement of the elections after they were scheduled for December 24, 2021. It is known that the most prominent reasons are represented by the two dilemmas of allowing the military to run in the presidential elections, or preventing them from running, and those concerned with this are especially retired Major General Khalifa Haftar. As for the second dilemma, it concerns Saif al-Islam, the second son of Muammar Gaddafi, whose candidacy for the presidential elections in 2021 would have been rejected due to the issuance of decisive judicial decisions against him, from external and internal judicial bodies, because he committed war crimes. Behind the scenes, there is a possible way out of the source of the delay related to the candidacy of military personnel, which is for anyone who wants to run, from the military establishment, to pledge to resign from the army before the elections, provided that he will not return to his military position, if he does not win the vote.

Dual nationality barrier

The proposed solution to the dual citizenship barrier is to require the renunciation of foreign citizenship permanently, before voting. It is not known whether Haftar will accept this formula or not, but as long as there is no political and legal solution to the dilemma of dual citizenship, for Haftar, who holds American citizenship, in addition to his Libyan citizenship, the work of the 6-6 Committee will not be effective and effective in paving the way for the elections. . It appears that the difficulties in nominating Haftar may justify resorting to an alternative represented by his ally, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aguila Saleh.
The prominent seekers of the presidency are not limited to the three Khalifa Haftar, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, and Aguila Saleh. There are influential figures who also do not hide their intention to run in the upcoming elections, including the head of the unity government, Abdul Hamid al-Dabaiba, and the head of the parallel government, Fathi Bashagha, but they are not at the height of their power these days. The former is not convinced to hold elections, hoping to extend his stay in power, in the “permanent temporary” manner, under the pretext of “completion of the third transitional phase.” As for the second (Bashagha), he must face the erosion of his popularity, even in his city of Misrata, because he made promises that he did not fulfill, in addition to his inability to stabilize in the capital, and to obtain international and regional recognition, in his capacity as head of the government emerging from the House of Representatives. It is clear in this scene that the Libyan issue has been completely internationalized, and that the Libyans will not have the last word in resolving the conflict. Therefore, Russia has begun to stress the necessity of the withdrawal of all non-Libyan armed forces and military units from Libya, in a gradual and coordinated manner, in order to maintain balance on the field. In this context, the Russians are keen to remain out of the limelight at this stage, to ensure the interests of their company “SMB”, which was founded by Putin’s close friend Evgeny Prikogin, and which is Russia’s economic arm in Africa. As for the UAE, it welcomed the 13th constitutional amendment, calling on the parties to a clear and serious timetable to achieve electoral entitlement, noting at the same time that achieving stability requires the withdrawal of foreign mercenaries and foreign forces in a balanced and simultaneous manner.
At the regional level, it seems that the tour undertaken by UN envoy Bathily, late last month, to three neighboring countries, namely Sudan, Chad and Niger, which focused on removing foreign fighters and mercenaries from Libyan territory, as if it did not fulfill the hopes placed on it. However, the Americans do not hide, whether at the United Nations or in their meetings with the Libyans, their conviction that the return of stability to the country, which is rich in energy resources, will make it possible to bring about a significant increase in oil and gas exports, and thus Libyan exports will enhance the capabilities available to Washington’s European partners to obtain fuels. It provides a measure of regional stability, in the face of attempts to destabilize security carried out by Russia on the one hand, and armed groups in the desert regions neighboring Libya, especially the “Janjaweed” on the other hand. The Janjaweed are accustomed to freedom of movement in the vast triangle area between Libya, Niger and Chad, and thus they are a source of great danger to efforts aimed at holding elections before the end of the year.

A popular referendum on the constitution?

There is a question that has not been clearly asked until today, and it relates to the referendum on the draft constitution, which is supposed to precede the elections. However, the time remaining until the end of the year does not allow holding two consecutive elections, especially with the difficulty of electoral paths in southern Libya. The House of Representatives issued the referendum law on the constitution, but the Election Commission has not yet conducted the referendum on the constitutional declaration. Several figures, including Speaker of the House of Representatives Aguila Saleh, insist on the necessity of presenting the constitutional document, which regulates the election process, to a popular referendum before adopting it, considering that external interference is “the cause of political instability in Libya,” forgetting the negative role of the Council in condoning the presence of foreign forces. In the country, and his silence on supplying most of the Libyan military bodies with money and weapons, from regional countries.
Although many observers believe that arrangements are currently being made to name a new government to supervise the electoral process, in coordination with international actors in Libya, it is unlikely that Al-Dabaiba will accept to step down, as he promised to hand over powers only to an elected government. This controversy may hinder progress towards the elections, as political figures and tribal leaders recently held meetings in Misrata that resulted in a set of recommendations, including the creation of a unified executive authority that would pave the way for holding presidential and parliamentary elections, and for Khalifa Haftar to have a role in their formation. This is an uncertain path, because this executive authority may cling to power through various means, as previous governments did, and the country will return to square one.

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