Taiwan Public Opinion FoundationChairmanYou YinglongCommented on Facebook yesterday2024 Legislative ElectionHe said that this year’s presidential election situation generally feels cold, and the legislative election situation is even colder. Generally speaking, a cold election is more beneficial to the incumbent, but in some special circumstances, this is not the case.
You Yinglong said that this year, the Democratic Progressive Party, which is fully in power, is facing the test of the eight-year curse, and the pressure on the presidential and legislative elections is particularly heavy. Regardless of the presidential election, it is only a matter of time before the Democratic Progressive Party’s legislative election raises the alarm. This is mainly caused by four factors.
He said, first of all, the DPP has been in full power for nearly eight years, and the latest nationalpollIt shows that nearly 60% of voters are dissatisfied with his overall governance performance, and even as many as 30% are strongly dissatisfied.
Second, although the Blue and White candidates failed in the presidential election, in the legislative election, because the People’s Party regional legislators only proposed 10 seats, Blue and White supporters may merge in most constituencies, seriously threatening the current Democratic Progressive Party. Committee member You Yinglong said, of course, this depends on whether Blue and White seriously fall out in the presidential election competition.
You Yinglong said that thirdly, the results of the 2022 local elections will have far-reaching consequences. Because the Kuomintang won a resounding victory and occupies a relative local governance advantage in 4 cities and 10 counties and cities, once this “anti-ruling party campaign momentum” arises, the election of DPP legislators in the jurisdiction will be the first to bear the brunt.
You Yinglong said that fourth, the 11 Democratic Progressive Party legislators who were elected for the first time in 2020 riding on the momentum of Tsai Ing-wen’s presidential campaign should be on strict alert; as the saying goes, “When the sea water recedes, you can tell whether anyone is wearing pants or not. very clear”. Legislators who have performed well in political affairs in the past four years are relatively fine, while those who have performed poorly can only wait.
You Yinglong said that the DPP was originally a political party that was founded through elections. Logically speaking, it was not a problem to handle things when the troops came and the water came. But now that it has been in power for a long time, whether it is mentality, posture or reaction, it has become a problem. It is an indisputable fact that it is not as fast, flexible, and in place as in the past.
Generally speaking, in the 2024 presidential and legislative elections, it is basically not a big problem for the Democratic Progressive Party to win the presidential election; You Yinglong said, but it will be difficult to get a majority of Congress and fully govern again. The knowledgeable people in the Democratic Progressive Party all know this well. The question is how many seats will be lost if the region is added without division?
You Yinglong said that he had a rough estimate:Losing 5 to 9 seats is considered a small loss, losing 10 to 14 seats is considered a medium loss, and losing 15 or more seats is a big loss.At present, it seems that “losing” is more likely. In the future, it still depends on the strength of Lai Xiaopei’s momentum to determine the extent of the loss of legislative seats.。
You Yinglong said that the 2024 legislative election has entered the final stage. From various indications, the three parties are most likely to be less than half, but which party will become the largest party in Congress? Still undecided. The only certainty is that the Popular Party will be the party with a critical minority of seats.
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You Yinglong Poll Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation
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2023-12-10 22:03:05
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