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Lebanon’s Entry into the Club of Oil-Producing Countries: Expectations, Political Maneuvering, and Potential Revenues

“With the arrival of the energy exploration ship to the regional waters, in preparation for the start of the exploratory drilling process in Block No. 9, during the coming weeks, Lebanon will practically enter the club of oil-producing countries, but with the suspension of any expectations about oil wealth revenues, in the event that it turns out that it is in the Lebanese economic zone.” commercial quantities, which will not be achieved in a time limit.

While the French company Total Energies is preparing to start drilling in the south, within the framework of the consortium that now includes the Italian company Eni and Qatar Energy, which had bought the share of Novatek, the political forces are preparing to put the file of oil wealth on the table. The fire of bidding, political employment, and the exploitation of oil and gas revenues in order to achieve gains on more than one level, starting with the search for the establishment of the sovereign fund and the establishment of its human cadres through an expected quota, according to informed parliamentary circles.

These parliamentary circles revealed to the “Lebanese Debate” that it is too early to talk about revenues or profits that Lebanon will achieve in this field, bearing in mind that any profits will not become realistic for about seven or ten years, at a time when there is a remarkable race to take over management. Sovereign Fund for Natural Resources of Oil and Gas.

Will the political reality be the same after ten years?

The parliamentary circles answer that the political parties have begun to develop scenarios for the expected “wealth”, in the event that it becomes clear that there is gas and oil in Block No. 9, knowing that any amount discovered will hardly cover Lebanon’s annual oil bill, which amounts to five billion dollars.

Regarding the possibility of repeating the previous exploration experience in Block No. 4, where no commercial quantities were found, these circles say that everything is possible, but expectations are high for Block No. 9, which is 10 kilometers from the Israeli “Karish” field, which began producing gas a year ago. Knowing that Israel will also have a share of the Qana oil field, in the event that the discovered gas field crosses the maritime demarcation line, i.e. the Lebanese border, and then the maritime demarcation agreement with Israel will be implemented, and in it the value of this share is 17 percent agreed upon by Israel with the company. Total”.

However, the circles clarify that if all the gas is on the Lebanese side, then the contract signed between Lebanon and Total will be applied.

2023-08-16 04:20:43
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