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Lebanese Presidential Election Dialogue and French Mediation: Analysis and Updates

“Lebanese Debate”

The second round of the mission of the French presidential envoy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, acquires a very important character, as it will come after his tour in the region, which will necessitate that he obtain data that will allow him to resume his efforts to remove the election of the President of the Republic from the circle of confrontation between two prominent axes in Lebanon and the region, and work first on Achieving a political calm on the line of presidential entitlement and setting the stage for a second dialogue, noting that prominent parties in Lebanon have pre-empted this approach by announcing their opposition to any dialogue in order to elect the President of the Republic.

In light of this opposition to any dialogue that Le Drian might propose, the French sponsorship of the dialogue may take a new direction, and thus will put the task of the French diplomat in a difficult position, knowing that before his departure he was keen to seek the opinions of all those he met about the possibility of calling for the dialogue and its venue, and whether He was ahead of the election of the president or came after him.

This reality leads to asking a basic question about the position of the two in support of the nomination of the head of the “Marada” movement, Suleiman Franjieh, and the answer that he will present to the French envoy. In this context, the writer and political analyst Qassem Kassir confirms that the position of “Hezbollah” has not changed and has not changed regarding the presidential file. And from Ludrian’s visit and the ideas he will present at the level of the dialogue that is being discussed on the internal scene.

What will the party say to the French delegate? Analyst Kassir told the “Lebanon Debate,” “The party is ready for dialogue, but it sticks to Franjieh’s candidacy,” noting that “this position applies to the” Amal” movement as well.”

Regarding the date of Le Drian’s return, Kassir points out that “Le Drian, although he pledged to return to Beirut, there are no indications until now about the date of his return from Paris.” However, Kassir reveals “information stating that he is waiting to set a crucial date to continue his consultations, This is because he will visit Saudi Arabia and Qatar and thus consult with the member states of the “five-party meeting”.

Therefore, Kassir adds that, “In principle, Le Drian will return after July 14 to open a loophole in the impasse that is holding up the election of a president.”

It is known that Le Drian’s coming to Lebanon comes in a separate context from the “five-party meeting”, as the task of sponsoring the dialogue was not discussed within the Paris meeting, as Kassir indicates that there are no indications or information about any meeting of the five countries participating in this meeting until the hour.

On the other hand, fixing the date of Le Drian’s return to Beirut depends on what his contacts will lead to in the stations that will precede the Beirut station, and if his call to facilitate the dialogue ranged between support and rejection from the opposition team, and here Kassir says that “the duo has confirmed the willingness to discuss any file on The dialogue table that Paris is preparing for, although Hezbollah recently announced that it does not currently prefer to talk about “regime change, the Taif Agreement, or putting forward any special demand” at the upcoming dialogue table.

In response to a question about what the party wants from the dialogue it calls for, Kassir stresses that “what matters to the party now is defining any vision for running the country in the next stage, and an understanding on this vision between all internal parties, with external guarantees.”

2023-07-09 04:53:08
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