Kyle Shanahan’s Overtime Decision: Balancing Analytics and the Fear of Mahomes
In a nail-biting Super Bowl showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs, coach Kyle Shanahan found himself facing a critical decision during overtime. As the 49ers won the toss, Shanahan had to choose whether to defer to the analytics staff’s pre-baked assessment and take the ball, or to kick to the Chiefs. It was a choice that would not only impact the game but also potentially invite scrutiny and internal questioning.
Shanahan initially cited the numbers-based conclusion that it was best to have the ball for the third possession of overtime. However, he later explained that the decision was also influenced by the tiredness of the defense and the fact that it had become a “field goal game.” But perhaps, deep down, Shanahan had another motive – to deny Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes another chance to work his magic on the field.
Patrick Mahomes has proven time and again that he possesses an uncanny ability to turn the tide of a game with his exceptional skills. Shanahan, well aware of Mahomes’ legendary capabilities, may have wanted to avoid giving him yet another opportunity to create history. It’s a decision that required careful consideration of not only the game’s dynamics but also the broader organizational dynamics.
Every team has an analytics department filled with highly intelligent individuals who often have the ear of ownership. Shanahan had two options – either follow their predetermined assessments or overrule their calculations. By defying the analytics recommendation, he risked facing scrutiny from both the media and fans. On the other hand, if he followed their advice, he would have spent the entire offseason answering internal questions about why he didn’t defer to these Ivy League-educated mathematicians.
For any head coach, it’s already challenging to deal with criticisms from various sources during a game. Shanahan knew that if he defied the analytics recommendation, he would have to endure the whispers of the Ph.D.’s criticizing his decision to influential figures like Jed York. The consequences would have extended beyond the game itself, haunting him during the after party, on the plane home, and even within the team facility as he prepared for the future.
Despite making the final decision in the heat of the moment, Shanahan likely understood that anything other than choosing to receive the ball and score would have led to a headache that would outlast several news cycles. He knew that writers and critics would pounce on his decision, creating annoying headlines about his choice to set the stage for another chapter in the Book of Mahomes.
However, Shanahan’s decision opens up an important discussion about reconfiguring the formula for overtime. He should lay the foundation for arguing that, for certain quarterbacks like Mahomes, it makes sense to make them go first. The analytics may be simple when it comes to specific quarterbacks in specific games – if you give them the ball second in overtime, you will undoubtedly regret it.
In the end, Shanahan’s decision was a delicate balance between analytics and the fear of Mahomes. It showcased the challenges faced by coaches when they have to navigate between data-driven assessments and their own instincts. As the NFL continues to evolve, it will be intriguing to see how coaches like Shanahan adapt their strategies to stay one step ahead in this ever-changing game.
