Maintaining oil prices at $ 35 per barrel, and the value of the dollar about 72 rubles, threatens the Russian budget with a loss of about 3 trillion rubles. oil and gas revenues, the head of the Audit Chamber, Alexei Kudrin, calculated. The budget deficit may amount to about 2% of GDP. “We must understand that we face such challenges,” he warned.
The Chairman of the Accounts Chamber also admitted that under such circumstances, GDP growth will be close to zero.
The forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development on the average oil price of $ 57.7 per barrel and average annualthe courseThe dollar of 63.9 rubles is already outdated and it is impossible to build a budget on it, Kudrin also noted. According to him, one must proceed from the new realities. But the official did not rule out that oil prices may be slightly higher than current values.
But even if oil costs $ 40-45 per barrel, the growth of the Russian economy “will be closer to zero.”
At the end of last year, Russia’s GDP grew by 1.3%.
There will be more poor
Another risk of low oil prices is the real income of the population. They will inevitably decline. And then the poverty level in Russia in 2020 may not decrease, but increase. “Most likely, serious changes for the better will not happen. On the contrary, we are faced with the challenges of, at a minimum, poverty alleviation. Unfortunately, there may even be an increase, ”Kudrin said.
The Head of the Accounts Chamber emphasized that higher growth of real incomes of the population and reduction of poverty level were previously expected. But now we’ll have to invest even more in human capital.
In February, the Ministry of Economic Development, on the contrary, improved forecasts on the level of poverty in Russia for 2020-2023. The expected poverty level in the Russian Federation in 2020 will be 10.8% of the total population of the country (previously – 11.7%), in 2021 – 9.8% (10.8%), in 2022 – 8.8% ( 9.4%), in 2023 – 7.7% (7.9%).
The forecast for 2024 is maintained at 6.6%. By this date, President Vladimir Putin has set the goal of halving the level of poverty in the country. According to the results of three quarters of 2019, this level amounted to 13.1% of the total population of the country, Rosstat reported.
Kudrin completed his forecast on an alarmist note.
“I want to already say fully that, most likely, we are on the verge of a crisis. The current crisis may turn out to be quite sensitive, ”Kudrin said.
According to him, the situation is aggravated by the fact that, unlike 2008, China was significantly affected by the coronavirus, therefore it cannot be the engine of the world economy. The Chairman of the Audit Chamber added that he hoped for a rise in oil prices in order to avoid inflation in the country.
The first vice-premier Andrei Belousov entered into an in-depth discussion with Kudrin. Kudrin’s forecast does not support him. “Nothing fatal is happening,” Belousov told reporters.
But in case of a negative scenario, the government has a special plan. “We have a plan in case something happens, but I don’t even see the reasons for this plan, not just to use it, but even somehow among the federal executive bodies (federal executive bodies -“ Newspaper. Ru ”) promote, ”said Belousov, without revealing the details of the emergency plan.
“Everything that had to be done in order to quench the possibility of such nervous behavior of the markets on the 10th, the government, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank did,” said Belousov.
The First Deputy Prime Minister also commented on the statements of the UAE and Saudi Arabia on plans to increase oil production in April and the fall of oilquotesas a result of the failure of the OPEC + Russia transaction.
“Where does she fall? Nothing she falls. She twitched – so what, what was the guard? I, too … Listen, you don’t have to make a problem out of every dollar per barrel: the markets grind it all quite calmly. Today it sank — now a rebound has begun, ”the official replied.
– .
