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Julius Baer 2023E Financial Report: Impact of Signa Group Insolvency and Loan Provisions Analysis

2023E (in CHF million) AWP consensus 2022A Operating income 3713 3853 Adj. consolidated profit 840 1050 IFRS consolidated profit 802 950 (in BP) Gross margin 85.2 87.0 (in percent) Cost/income ratio 70.6 65.9 ( in billion Swiss francs) Net New Money (NNM) 13.0 8.7 (in billion Swiss francs) as of December 31, 2023 as of October 30, 2023 Customer assets (AuM) 442 435 (in Swiss francs) 2023E 2022A Dividend per share 2.60 2.60

FOCUS: Julius Baer’s annual reporting should provide clarity about the bank’s losses from the large loans to the now insolvent Signa Group. (see also PRO MEMORIA). It is generally expected that Julius Baer will have to make further loan provisions. Estimates range from 150 million in 2023 and 2024 to a provision of 400 million francs for 2023. Some analysts would welcome a full write-off of the loans in one fell swoop as a “closure” to the affair.

2024-01-31 13:22:51
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