The structure of the new National Security Council led by Jake Sullivan leaves little doubt what the Biden administration’s foreign policy priorities will be. During the long years of the Cold War, the brightest minds and most capable analysts of the American administration flocked to the “Europe” direction of the National Security Council, where strategies were developed to contain the Soviet Union, consolidate relations with allies, define competition strategies.
In the post 9/11 era the same happened for the “Middle East” direction: there were two wars to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan and an all-out strategy had to be defined to counter the global threat of radical Islam.
Today the challenges, threats and crises, and even the opportunities, are further shifted towards the East, in the vast area of the Indo-Pacific, between the coasts of California, the China Sea, through the Indian Ocean, to reach the East coast of Africa. And therefore the choices of the Biden administration were consequent and the “shift” towards Asia is now a reality: the new “Indo-Pacific” direction of the National Security Council has now become the largest team of security experts in the American administration.
Under the guidance of Kurt Campbell, formerly “assistant Secretary of State” with responsibility for Asia in the Obama administration, the new division of the Indo-Pacific was born by merging the old office of “Asian Affairs”, which traditionally dealt with China, Japan, the two Koreas , Southeast Asia and Australia, with the “South Asia” office, historically responsible for the Indian subcontinent (India, Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka).
A new Indo-Pacific doctrine is therefore taking shape and will concern the definition of strategies and new “policies” to contain China and at the same time build a new and articulated system of alliances on the Asian continent.
The “focus” on China will involve various aspects of the American national security strategy: from the relationship between technologies and security, to the issues of biodefence and global health security, to military issues, to the issues of democracy and human rights.
Many members of the new team on the “Indo-Pacific” Security Council
National have expressed in recent months a very assertive and competitive vision towards Beijing. It is about Laura Rosenberger, former “Chief of Staff” of Anthony Blinken when he was Deputy Secretary of State with Obama / Clinton, who will lead the “China” office of the National Security Council and who recently wrote a long article in Foreign Affairs on how the “values Democrats ”represent a strong competitive advantage over Beijing.
The full-scale confrontation between “democracies” and “autocracies” will not only be a confrontation of strength and power, but also of “values”, and therefore the theme of “promotion and diffusion of democracy” will again become a priority in Biden administration.
Shanti Kalathil, with two parents one Indian and the other Taiwanese, she will be the coordinator of the National Security Council’s office on “Democracy and Human Rights” which will focus in the coming months on the massive violations of human rights throughout China, from Tibet, to the Uyghuri of Xinkiang, up to the gradual reduction of fundamental freedoms in the city of Hong Kong; on the Burmese dossier, from the military coup to the persecutions of the Rohynga; on the dissemination of fake news by authoritarian regimes and on the control of social networks, starting with the Chinese Tik Tok which prevents any issue considered “sensitive” by Beijing from posting online.
Finally Tarun chhabra, also of Indian origin, who will be the coordinator of the team on “Technologies and National Security” that will define the policies of the Biden administration on the crucial issues of competition with China on 5G and artificial intelligence.
This is the new strengthened team that will address the new “Asia” priority in the National Security Council and the Biden administration’s policy in the greater Indo-Pacific area will essentially be characterized by
“Containment” and competition with China; growing support for India as a strategic partner and as a counterweight to Beijing; strengthening of political and military cooperation with Asian democracies and defense of Taiwan; constant denunciation of human rights violations and support for the struggles for democracy.
The China, will be the first global competitor of the US for the next few years and the subject that represents the greatest political, military and economic threats: “China – recalled Campbell recently – seeks to dominate cutting-edge technologies, including 5G, artificial intelligence and biogenetics, to exploit them in the service of promoting an authoritarian model of society “. The Chinese dominance in these technologies is therefore considered by the administration
Biden an existential threat to free societies. Hence, the commitment to “work closely with allies and friendly countries to prevent Chinese acquisition of further military and strategic capabilities”.
L’India will be the real new global strategic partner of the US in the Indo-Pacific, starting with security policies, on which the US administration attributes a leadership role to India in maintaining security
in the Indian Ocean. The strengthening of all-out strategic cooperation between India and the US could be one of the real novelties of the democratic administration and objectively a “game changer” in the global equilibrium of the Indo-Pacific.
The idea of integrating the transatlantic alliance with an Indo-Pacific alliance is growing in America, which could see India as a solid pillar around which to consolidate a strong alliance between Asian democracies and the West. In this context, the new Biden administration plans to assign more and more strength and structure to the model “QUAD”, The cooperation agreement on security between the USA, India, Australia and Japan, which many would like to transform into a real all-out international defense agreement between the democracies of the Indo-Pacific. A sort of “Born of the East” to contain Beijing’s ambitions once again.
Secretary of State Anthony Blinken recently confirmed this line, announcing a stronger commitment of the new administration to strengthen ties with the allies of the Indo-Pacific, starting with Australia, Japan and India to build a solid coalition among the great Asian democracies to contain Chinese expansionism.
The various initiatives of the American administration to incorporate new countries, such as the Maldives, the
Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, in the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Initiative” project, promoted by Japan and strongly supported by India.
The Biden administration will not reduce support a Taiwan indeed, an increase in military cooperation is possible to allow Taiwan to develop an effective and autonomous asymmetric defense capability capable of guaranteeing
own freedom and security. Washington is convinced that China will take increasingly assertive measures to force unification with Taipei, including the military option, and does not want to be caught unprepared.
The North Korea it is no longer considered a strategic threat, but at the time
it is expected to maximize pressure on Pyongyang by using all economic, diplomatic, military and intelligence tools to block programs for the construction of weapons of mass destruction. The denuclearization of the peninsula remains a priority and military support will be increased to achieve this goal South Korea and Japan, together with the promotion of actions to bring the two Asian democracies, often distant on many dossiers, closer.
Finally, the objective for the countries of Southeast Asia will be to support the regional integration process initiated by ASEAN (the Association of Countries
Southeast Asia) and to increase their involvement in the architecture of
security of the region. Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines they will become increasingly involved in an integrated economic model that can offer a credible alternative to the Chinese Silk Road project and will be supported by Washington in their claims in the South China Sea.
Finally Myanmar he will remain a “special guard”. If the violent repression of the Rohynga minority had already turned more than one spotlight on a democratic transition that had betrayed too many expectations, the recent military coup represents a strong alarm bell. The Biden administration wants to prevent Myanmar from ending up in the Chinese sphere of influence and will openly support the National League for Democracy and President Aung Sun Suu Khy, who was elected by an overwhelming majority a few weeks ago.
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