In its quarterly forecasts, Météo France informs that the probability of a warmer than normal quarter is very strong over the whole of Europe.
Late winter and early spring with higher than normal temperatures. This is to be expected, according to the seasonal forecasts for February, March and April, made by Meteo France and published Friday January 24. The current cold period, completely normal, will ultimately be only temporary. “The next quarter should be warmer than normal throughout Europe with excess precipitation in the north of the continent and rarer than normal in the Mediterranean regions”, writes the public establishment. The change will take place on Sunday.
Thereafter, in France, we should expect mild and humid weather in a large northern half, while the weather should be dry around the Mediterranean. “This situation is the consequence of what is called the North Atlantic oscillation or NAO. This index, which can be negative or positive as at the moment, indicates the difference in atmospheric pressure between the region of the North Atlantic around Iceland and South Greenland and that, in the South, around the Azores “, Explains to Parisian Etienne Kapikian, forecast engineer at Météo France. Who warns, however: “These are only average trends over a period of three months which does not at all exclude one-off events with heavy rain” in Mediterranean.
The probability of this scenario is 70%. To establish a seasonal creation, climatologists analyze the results of numerical models comparable to those used to make short-term forecasts, but integrating ocean modeling. “The performance of seasonal forecasts is very variable”, They remind. If the scenario which has just been presented is confirmed, this winter would go down in history with these high temperatures. “In the event that temperatures in February exceed at least 1.6 ° C the usual averages, winter would be the second mildest since 1981, behind that of 2015-2016”, underlines Etienne Kapikian.
–
