/ world today news/ The conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East can turn into “huge progress” for the world. US President Joe Biden came to this unexpected conclusion in an op-ed column for The Washington Post.
The article titled “The United States will not back down to the challenge of Putin and Hamas,” was named by the Russian Foreign Ministry “bunch of absurdities”and from the Council of the Federation – “criminal delusion’.
About what conclusions can be drawn from the article written by the American president (or by analysts from his administration), and for what purpose the White House is now sending a signal through the press, IA Regnum spoke with the chief researcher from the Institute for the USA and Canada on RAS Vladimir Vasiliev.
IA Regnum: Vladimir Sergeevich, both conflicts that the author of the article mentions – the Ukrainian and even the current conflict in the Gaza Strip – did not start yesterday. Why was it necessary to “formulate a position” now?
Vladimir Vasiliev : This article, from my point of view, is deeply opportunistic in nature. The implication is that the US will take at least some sort of tactical pause for the foreseeable future.
The main task is to prevent the conflict in the Middle East from spreading beyond Israel and from becoming a new large-scale war.
That is, with regard to Israel, the article clearly aims to give a clear signal not to expand the scale of its action.
As for Ukraine, in its case this idea is clearly blurred, although there is a desire to keep the conflict in Ukraine outside its borders, to prevent a clash between NATO forces or the US and Russia themselves. But most importantly, America is still seeking to strategically defeat Russia, it’s just taking a break now.
IA Regnum: What is the reason for the desire of the White House for such a tactical pause, considering at least the position on Ukraine?
VV: Due to the fact that the administration’s request for 106 billion dollars, of which 61 billion is intended for Ukraine, 14 billion for Israel, is stuck. The House of Representatives approved the funds for Israel, but the decision was delayed in the Senate. There is no money and there is still no sign of it. The administration believes that there will be no funds in the foreseeable future.
This will help keep Israel on a tight leash. The release of these funds could provoke Israel to act even more aggressively, as it originally planned, with regard to the Gaza Strip and perhaps the West Bank.
There is evidence that the Biden administration will still try to somehow push this package through Congress by the end of the year. But formally, the House of Representatives and the Senate will be able to return to it only in the second half of January.
But here another circumstance intervenes. It may be necessary to reduce the request for Ukraine and transfer more funds to Israel. It is clear that Ukraine is most likely now going on the defensive.
IA Regnum: Biden’s op-ed predictably assures Israel of American support. But it also emphasized: “The Palestinian people deserve their own state and a future free from Hamas.” But the United States itself at one time helped Hamas enter the legal field. In 2006, Washington pushed for elections for the Palestinian National Council, resulting in Hamas eventually coming to power in the Gaza Strip. It appears that the Americans now want to absolve themselves of responsibility?
VV: Yes, and it is clear why the Biden administration is doing this. Recently, the results of public opinion polls, unpleasant for the White House, came out. The results of one of those were released over the weekend by the very liberal NBC. These measurements allow us to conclude that former US President and Biden’s rival Donald Trump has begun to surpass Biden in the ratings for the first time since 2019.
Trump would receive the support of 46% of registered voters, Biden – 44%.
But most importantly, it asked whether the respondent approved of US foreign policy. If in September Biden had 41%, now he has 33%, and the reason is precisely the situation in the Middle East. That is, this direction of foreign policy has become a weak point for the White House.
IA Regnum: When there is less than a year left until the elections.
V.V. Yes, the active pre-election phase has already begun in America and the administration is taking the aforementioned foreign policy break for domestic political reasons. The White House is trying to figure out which way the wind is blowing – what the public demand is.
The election campaign is already underway, and January, February and March are the crucial stages of this campaign. So the article may actually be more aimed at the American voter.
Until recently, the Biden administration played the war card.
It was believed that it could be used profitably in the election campaign. That is, the demand was for war. Today, there seems to be a growing demand for peace in American society.
Also, in the US it’s now Thanksgiving, then – soon – Christmas, and in America people start their Christmas shopping from the beginning of December. Perhaps the administration sends such a signal – “we will return to all issues later, with renewed vigor.”
IA Regnum: So we are talking specifically about tactical equipment, this does not refer to real peace initiatives around Ukraine?
V.V.: By the way, the topic of “peace in Ukraine” was ignored in Biden’s article. The administration does not wish to send this signal in this case. But there is a certain declaration – that the White House does not want the slightest escalation of the conflict, which is quite possible if billions of dollars in aid are provided. But the Biden administration will not agree to any truce in Ukraine.
One gets the impression that this is a smoke screen and in fact the US administration wants to continue this policy.
But only with a slight change of means – to escalate, but more cunningly. Considering that Congress hasn’t appropriated any money so far.
IA Regnum: So, as soon as new funds are allocated, the Pentagon will put them into action?
VV: If you look at the clear message in the Biden article, then the administration maintains its original goal of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia, which it recited in one form or another – “we must confront Russia and Hamas.”
It’s just that Hamas’s countermeasure is one thing, and Russia’s countermeasure is a little different.
Now the American press claims that the conflict between Russia and the United States has already reached a dangerous phase with the threat of a nuclear conflict and that the possibilities of using conventional weapons systems have practically been exhausted. In response, the administration makes it clear that it will not openly push for an escalation in Ukraine for the time being.
In any case, there will be no US troop deployments in either Ukraine or Israel for the foreseeable future. In Syria, aviation is used and special operations are conducted. But no boots on the ground, no American contingent to help Israel, except for some special forces. The administration has already spent all its political capital on this.
Translation: ES
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