The world is about to be divided into two blocs. In this symbolic week, the world is waiting to see what China will do. Today, the country’s top diplomat has meetings in Moscow.
On Wednesday, China’s top diplomat Wang Yi will meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. It is “not excluded” that he will also meet President Vladimir Putin.
The visit comes after Wang has been on an eight-day tour of several Western countries. Everywhere, Wang talks about a “political solution” to the Ukraine war. It is also believed to be his theme in Moscow.
Friday is the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Chinese are hinting that President Xi Jinping will use the day to make a big speech, where he will present concrete peace proposals.
It is far from random. The incident says something about how the Ukraine war has changed the power relations in the world. And about what the world has in store.
According to Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Antonio Tajani, the Chinese leader is preparing a “peace speech”.
Tajani was in Beijing last week. There he is said to have tried to convince the Chinese that they must use their influence to convince Russia that they must end the war.
«Wisdom of China»
On Tuesday, China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang said that “individual countries” must “stop bringing wood to the fire”. according to Reuters was it aimed at the United States.
– China is deeply concerned that the conflict in Ukraine could spread or even get out of control, he said.
– We will continue to push to start talks, and make China’s wisdom available, so that we can find a solution to the war in Ukraine, he said.
China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, traveled to Moscow on Tuesday. He was previously China’s foreign minister. Now he is Xi’s foremost foreign policy adviser in the party leadership as head of a party body for foreign policy.
At the weekend he was at the big security conference in Munich. In his speech, he hinted that China is preparing a proposal for a peace settlement in Ukraine.
On Friday, you will therefore be able to get an answer to how deeply China will involve itself in the war. Many fear that the great power will go over to Russia’s side.
Launching a new meeting place?
China expert Drew Thompson of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore says The Financial Times that China’s “peace plan” is unlikely to provoke the Russians.
He expects the Chinese to repeat their warnings against using nuclear weapons.
– I don’t think it will have a big impact, but neither will it give support to Putin, he says.
Several experts the newspaper has spoken to expect that Xi will launch a new meeting place to discuss security policy.
It should be similar to the Western-dominated Munich conference. A professor at Fudan University in Shanghai says that the target audience is China’s neighbours, as well as countries in Latin America and Africa.
Strong warnings
On Monday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that China may be preparing to sell weapons to Russia. It could mean a sharp deterioration in relations between East and West.
One of those who followed up was the President of Ukraine:
– Because if China allies itself with Russia, there will be a world war, said Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
In an interview with German The world he added:
– And I think that China knows that.
The president said he would ideally have China on his side in the war against Russia.
– But right now I don’t think it’s possible, he said.
On Tuesday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg followed up. He said the alliance is afraid that China will support Russia with weapons.
Trying to be neutral
Not all observers perceive China’s policy as “consistent and clear”.
– China has wanted to appear neutral, but they are not succeeding. To a large extent, they have repeated Russian talking points. And they have not distanced themselves from the invasion, says Henrik Stålhane Hiim.
He works as an associate professor at the Department of Defense Studies and is an expert on Chinese security policy.
The argument that China can play a mediating role is that the country has a greater opportunity to pressure the Russians. That does not convince Hiim:
– I have no faith that China will distance itself from Russia. The close strategic cooperation between the two countries was confirmed just before the war.
Hiim does not believe that the Chinese have much opportunity to pressure Russia.
– This war has a fundamental meaning for the Russians. I am skeptical that China will force them into something they absolutely do not want. That would be to risk relations with Russia, he says.
Increasing pressure on China
The US’s warnings that China may sell weapons to China are probably an attempt to prevent that from happening.
He reckons that the background for Blinken’s warnings is American intelligence. Before the invasion a year ago, the United States also broke with tradition. They were very open and leaked details from intelligence reports about Russia’s escalation on the border.
– The aim is probably to prevent China from giving “lethal support” to Russia’s warfare.
If China nevertheless sells weapons, Hiim believes that there will be major consequences.
– The most obvious implication is that an already difficult relationship with the US will get even worse, he says.
China’s top diplomat Wang Yi was perceived in Munich as if he wanted to drive a wedge between Europe and the United States. Chinese arms sales could make it considerably more difficult.
– Does that mean you don’t think Blinken is right?
– I have no reason to say anything about that. The intelligence may be correct, even if the sales do not materialize.
Towards a bifurcation
Experts believe that the war in Ukraine has brought China and Russia closer together.
Ole Jacob Sending is director of research at Nupi. He sees a clear development in security policy over the past year:
– The macro picture is clear: the world is moving towards a bifurcation, he says.
- On one side are the USA, the EU, Japan and South Korea.
- On the other hand, authoritarian regimes such as China, Russia, Iran and North Korea have come together.
– The war in Ukraine, combined with China’s more aggressive appearance internationally, points in the direction of a world with two superpowers and their respective allies who want to compete and be in conflict with each other, says Sending.
– We are already seeing that Western sanctions against Russia and China are making businesses reluctant to invest. The division into two is already underway, he adds.
However, he recalls that the picture is not entirely clear. A large country like India, for example, has not clearly chosen a side.
– The same applies to a number of African and Asian countries. For Norway, this will make us more dependent on NATO and the EU. I believe that an EU debate will push forward here at home, says Sending.
