ISW continues to predict that the end of the operational pause will be characterized by a tentative and phased resumption of ground offensives.
Russian forces are continuing their “measured return” from the operational pause and on July 17 conducted limited ground attacks in the Donetsk region. As ISW has already noted, the end of Russian troop leave is unlikely to lead to another massive wave of ground attacks, despite Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s public order to do just that.
Russian troops give priority to progress around Seversk and Bakhmut and create conditions for resuming the advance towards Slavyansk.
They also continue to maintain defensive positions north of the city of Kharkiv and along the southern axis.
If the Russians have the opportunity, they will go to Odessa. Until now, they have not had this opportunity, says ISW analyst Natalia Bugaeva in an interview with Ukrainska Pravda.
From a military point of view, she doesn’t think the Russians have a chance to take Odessa yet. He expects missile strikes on the city, but they will not go to Odessa until it is finished in Donbass. But their intentions have not changed. If they entrench themselves in the south, there will be an attack on Odessa afterwards. And Odessa will be one of their first targets – they need it not only for control over southern Ukraine, for control over the Black Sea, but it is also important for Moldova and Transnistria,” she said.
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