The question is no longer about the ability of the United States to pressure Israel, which is its main supporter militarily and financially, and provides cover for Tel Aviv in international forums. Rather, the question today is how long the many and active Israeli political, military and academic forces and elites who oppose Benjamin Netanyahu will allow him to indulge in his hysterical madness. He invented wars on more than one front, and it became clear from his government’s performance that he aimed to expand the war, prolong its duration, and implicate the United States in a regional war.
A quick review of what the Israeli government is doing and what it declares its intention to do other than uprooting “Hamas” and eliminating its leaders, confirms that the extreme right has lost the compass, starting with talk about reoccupying Gaza and calling on Minister of Internal Security Itamar Ben Gvir and Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich to displace the Palestinians from it. , expelling the residents of the West Bank to Jordan, and occupying southern Lebanon, according to the call of former Israeli Minister Avigdor Lieberman. Attitudes that can only be described as delirium.
The Israeli government took the war to an unprecedented level, as a result of provoking Iran with a number of specific operations that went beyond the assassination of scholars on its soil, and went so far as to accuse it of bombing Qassem Soleimani’s memorial ceremony, resulting in hundreds of deaths and injuries and shaking security inside Iran, whose regime has long been keen to fight its battles through its allies. outside its territory. This bombing was preceded by the assassination of a senior advisor to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Radhi Mousavi, in a raid on a suburb of Damascus. Its operations culminated in the assassination of Saleh Al-Arouri, deputy head of the political bureau in Hamas, by means of a drone that penetrated the southern suburb of Beirut, the stronghold of Hezbollah, whose Secretary-General had previously announced: “We heard in the past days that they are planning to assassinate leaders in (Islamic Jihad) or (Hamas) or in Palestinian factions outside occupied Palestine, including Lebanon. We say to this enemy that any attack on any human being in Lebanon will not remain unpunished, and will not remain unanswered.” All of these operations mean that Israel is deeply engaged in the policy of expanding the war and does not care about the American position, which has sought since the first day of the Gaza war not to expand its scope.
In a related context, the war in Gaza is conclusive proof of the limits of military action. For more than three months, Israel has not been able to achieve a single breakthrough that achieves its declared goals. The deficit also applies to the acts of piracy carried out by the Houthis in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab and the launching of missiles similar to the Iraqi militias allied with Iran, as their influence has been limited. In this context, the American hesitation to avoid a harsh and effective response to Houthi attacks and militia operations in Syria and Iraq may be aimed at avoiding a wide-scale war.
But what about Israel, which might succeed in expanding the scope of the war and take Washington where it does not want? Who can put an end to the continuing madness of the Israeli government, whose main driver is Netanyahu and the extreme right-wing clique around him, who is waiting for miracles or a regional war that the main parties are still avoiding?
American hesitation may unintentionally help to falter, especially since there is no realistic possibility in the near term for a dramatic and encouraging end to the conflict that provides stability and hope for the future. Anyone who believes that Israel, after completing its military operations to eliminate the Hamas movement, as it announces, will completely withdraw from Gaza, and that the Palestinian Authority is able to take charge quickly and officially, is not realistic. The problem is that the Palestinian and Israeli arenas lack leaders, and suffer from ineffective governance and structural problems on more than one level.
Washington faces a complex situation after the Gaza war, because if Israel remains in Gaza for a long period, it will expose it to attacks from what remains of Hamas and other organizations and to enormous challenges in maintaining law and order. Even when some Israeli officials talk about exiting Gaza, they speak frankly about the necessity of establishing long-term “buffer zones” and about Israel’s overall responsibility for security. It goes without saying that the Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank and the Arab countries will refuse to be at the service of Israeli security in the Gaza Strip.
In addition, Netanyahu appears to maintain a comfortable majority in the Knesset, which approved Netanyahu’s budget, strengthening the coalition’s grip on power until 2025. The government is likely to be able to remain for some time to come, which will confuse Washington even more, despite pressure for him to step down from office. Some former commanders who are highly respected in the Israeli security establishment. But if he refuses to do so, there is no clear mechanism to remove him from office even though his trial has resumed.
Also, if Netanyahu remains in power, the situation in the West Bank is likely to deteriorate, which could lead to a Palestinian uprising motivated by extremist settlers. If Joe Biden tries to revive the peace process, Netanyahu will likely confirm what he has already told the Likud party: that he alone can stop the creation of an independent Palestinian state.
The American administration has the broad outlines of the settlement, and it has been announced by the President, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, and the National Security Advisor, but the transition from words to action faces obstacles and the need for boldness, risk, and effective pressure in order to unravel the two-state solution contract. The United States will have to help coordinate many actions and overcome obstacles, because adapting to the post-war situation solves nothing and may create the conditions for another war.
As long as the broad outlines of the solution are announced, what is missing for the transition to implementation is an integrated strategic plan between America, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the Emirates, and Jordan to protect the security and development of the region in parallel with the initiation of the two-state solution.
This Arab-American integration in a time of Israeli madness is the necessary lever for a two-state solution and permanent peace. Without it, Iran will remain the winner in politics due to its strategy determined to uproot America from the region, followed by Israel, and begin completing the nuclear project, and empower it in its places in the Arab countries through allied local environments. Which proves it as a major player in the region.
#Madness #invention #wars
2024-01-08 00:11:57
