Now that Russian President Putin has recognized the self-proclaimed People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, a war between Russia and Ukraine appears to be getting closer. Is war inevitable or is there a way back? Two Eastern Europe experts and a diplomat on the latest developments.
What could happen in the coming days?
Eastern Europe expert Bob Deen van Clingendael calls the situation extremely dangerous. A miscalculation could lead to the conflict escalating, he says: “Russia will pass a number of treaties that will allow the country to legally deploy troops in the two areas they call peacekeepers. What we are going to see is that the Russian armed forces are diametrically opposed to the Ukrainian armed forces. That was not the case before.”
According to Deen, there are two legal realities, one according to Russia and one according to the rest of the world, that clash very much. “They have a difference of opinion about where the border is and that makes it dangerous. Ukraine thinks Crimea and the Donbas region are its territory. Russia thinks not.”
Russia expert Hubert Smeets van Window on Russia adds that clashes along the ceasefire line, which have been going on since 2015, have escalated dramatically over the past 24 hours. “It could be that that escalation is headed to another climax, with the aim of provoking the Ukrainian armed forces to fire back.”
“If the Russian troops stay along the LoC and don’t move, I think the Ukrainian armed forces will be disciplined and not respond,” Smeets said. “If the separatists do try, then it is asking a lot to show self-restraint, because it is their country. Of course Ukraine does not have to accept this annexation, because that is what it comes down to.”
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