While the toll of the coronavirus epidemic exceeded Monday 3 March the 3,000 deaths in the world, some recall that the seasonal flu is more deadly than the epidemic of Covid-19 to reduce the concern that rises to four corners of the planet. But is this argument really confirmed?
This is indeed the case if we compare the number of deaths from seasonal flu in France (44 deaths since November according to the last weekly report from Public Health France), with that of deaths linked to Covid-19.
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Each year, the seasonal flu affects between 2 million and 6 million people in France and kills 10,000 on average. As for the coronavirus, it has so far killed more than 3,000 people worldwide, including two on French territory. Globally, seasonal flu is responsible for 290,000 to 650,000 deaths a year, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).
Covid-19 fatality rate higher than that of influenza
But to find out if seasonal flu is more virulent than coronavirus, you have to look at the case fatality rate, the proportion of illness-related deaths out of the total number of cases affected by the disease. The fatality rate for coronavirus is between 2.5 and 3%, almost thirty times higher than that for seasonal flu, which is 0.1%.
On the other hand, the contagiousness index (the number of people infected by a patient) of the coronavirus is between 1.5 and 3.5, twice the rate of the seasonal flu (1), according to several studies published in February (Chinese Center for Disease Prevention and Control, CSSE, The Lancet, New England Journal of Medicine, Public Health Canada, Anses).
different profiles
Another indicator to take into account is the profile of people affected by the two diseases. In fact, children are very little affected by the new coronavirus, the under 10s representing less than 1% of patients, according to a recent study by the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC). In contrast, seasonal flu affects children much more, but with a very low mortality rate.
On the other hand, adults under the age of 60 have a high risk of contracting a severe form of the coronavirus, while in 2018-2019, 64% of the seasonal flu deaths were over 65, specifies Public Health France . Note that for the moment, it is difficult to compare the two diseases precisely and provide a definitive answer. And for good reason. It is unclear how the epidemic will evolve nationally and globally.
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