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The number of newly infected people and deaths in the United States is still growing rapidly, and there is no sign of a slowdown. And it is still uncertain to what extent the measures taken by the US government and the Fed will cushion the negative effects of the pandemic. How bad the US economy really is, but it would only show the data in the coming weeks, it said.
Goldman Sachs already sees black for the US economy. The analysts at the investment bank have lowered their already pessimistic expectations. For the first quarter of this year, they expect economic output to decline by 9 percent, and in the second quarter they expect real GDP to drop by as much as 34 percent. So far, they had estimated the decline to be 6 percent in the first quarter and 24 percent in the second quarter.
However, Goldman is confident that measures such as bans on contacts or closings of shops and public institutions, for example, will significantly reduce the number of new cases in the coming month. A slower spread of the virus and compliance with restrictions by companies and individuals could pave the way for an economic recovery from May / June, the analysts said.
In the meantime, the crisis has not left quite as serious an impact on consumer confidence and the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index as expected. Both recorded a decline in March, but this was less than forecast by economists.
The most recent data from China were also received positively. After the historical crash of purchasing managers’ indices, they returned to expansion in March for the service and manufacturing sectors.
Editorial staff finanzen.net / Dow Jones Newswires
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