14.02.2023
Tensions escalated after the United States shot down a high-altitude balloon from China as the two sides escalated accusations. What does this event reveal about the crisis management of the two superpowers? Deutsche Welle interviewed Yuan Jindong, an associate professor at the Center for International Security Studies at the University of Sydney, Australia.
DW: International public opinion has different analyzes and speculations about how the US and China responded to the “balloon” incident. How do you evaluate the performance of the two sides?
Yuan Jindong: The United States was slow to act at the beginning, but the reason may be that the Biden administration wanted to find a solution behind the scenes-considering that Blinken was about to visit China at the time.However, when the news (of the balloon) was exposed, the U.S. military still waited until it was safe to fly.shot down the balloon. In recent days, the United States seems to be following a standardized operating procedure and shot down three UFOs successively.
And Beijing’s attitude seems to have undergone some changes, from initially denying the existence of the balloon, to insisting that it was a civilian balloon, to (mildly) condemning the US’s approach. In contrast, the United States responded slowly at first, partly because of domestic political factors, especially criticism from the Republican Party, but in the end it carried out the task professionally through coordinated and orderly military operations. On the other hand, China quickly lost its initiative in this incident and has been reacting passively.
DW: What problems at the policy level have been exposed by the official information release and communication between the two countries?
Yuan Jindong: The way the United States handles this matter reveals the contradictions between some parties. It also reveals that the Biden administration still tends to solve this problem quietly, but it has to show toughness due to the pressure of domestic politics. The incident became a litmus test for how to handle a particular event in the larger context of managing bilateral relations. U.S.-China relations began to show some improvement after the meeting between Biden and Xi Jinping in Bali. However, there are limits to this improvement, and the United States must take problem-solving actions when its sovereignty is threatened. The U.S. government is well aware that any efforts to improve relations with China will be temporarily unable to continue after deploying military force to shoot down the balloon.
The incident also exposed serious flaws in China’s national security policymaking. Apparently the balloons are owned and operated by a special unit, the People’s Liberation Army, but not well coordinated with the rest of the government. The National Security Commission of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and its office have no authority to command the military, while the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is completely unaware of this, and has never received comprehensive information from relevant units. This situation may pose a serious challenge to how the two major powers manage the crisis in the future.In other words, from the perspective of the Biden administration, it is not very clear who should be approached in times of crisis, because it is uncertain who is the key player on the Chinese side, and more often than not, the Chinese side is completelyrefuse to communicate。
Deutsche Welle: Will this dispute make the prospects for the easing of US-China relations more bleak?
Yuan Jindong: I think the tension and the finger-pointing game has just begun. Both sides need a cooling off period and face saving – especially for China – in order to return to dialogue. Unilaterally seeking to engage with each other to improve relations is currently not an option.
Things could get even more tense in the coming months, given McCarthy’s planned visit to Taiwan. Diplomats from both countries will try to seal something before the United States hosts the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in late 2023.
In addition, the Munich Security Conference will also be an opportunity for Wang Yi and Blinken to meet on the sidelines of the conference.
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