But the rise in prices accelerates again when core inflation excluding energy and food is taken into account.
Inflation persisted in September in the US, despite already strong measures taken to slow it, complicating the task of Joe Biden who, a month before the mid-term elections, recently admitted the possibility of a recession.
Prices rose 8.2% in September over a year, according to the CPI index – which it refers – released Thursday by the Department of Labor. This represents a very slight slowdown in inflation, as prices rose 8.3% over a year in August.
But it is above all the increase in prices in just one month that shows that inflation is persistent: it has started to accelerate again, with + 0.4% between August and September, compared with + 0.1% between July and August. And that’s more than the 0.3% increase predicted by analysts.
The September CPI “shows some progress in addressing price increases, although we still have some work to do,” President Joe Biden said in a statement, noting that “prices are still too high”.
These US inflation data sent the yen to its lowest level since 1990 and depressed Wall Street, which opened sharply lower Thursday morning before recovering.
Housing rents, food and medical care “were the main contributors to the monthly increase,” the Labor Department said in a statement.
The prices of gasoline at the pump, on the other hand, fell by 4.9%, continuing to fall after the surge due to the war in Ukraine. But natural gas and electricity cost more than in August.
“Unacceptable” level.
Inflation “remains stubbornly high”, commented Kathy Bostjancic, an economist at Oxford Economics, in a note in which he notes in particular “a generalized increase in the prices of basic services”, other than food and gasoline.
Indeed, so-called core inflation, which excludes volatility in the food and energy sectors, remained stable over a month, at 0.6%, but reached its strongest one-year increase in 40 years, at 6.6. %.
This rise in the cost of living for American families is a strong argument used by Joe Biden’s opponents, a month before the midterm elections that resulted in the renewal of some elected members of Congress. The slim majority of the presidential field is at stake.
Joe Biden admitted Tuesday that it was “possible” for the United States to experience “a very slight recession”.
Because fighting inflation means slowing down economic activity. This is what the US central bank (Fed) is trying to do, but the longer inflation persists, the harder the institution has to hit, with the risk of causing a recession.
The September figures “support aggressive monetary policy, until prices show clear signs of decelerating on a sustained basis,” said HFE economist Rubeela Farooqi.
Fed officials believe a period of weaker growth and a slowdown in the labor market will be needed to overcome this inflation, which they consider to be at an “unacceptable” level, according to the minutes of their September meeting, released Wednesday.
They noted that inflation “had not yet responded” to rate hikes intended to curb it, and some felt that “acting too timidly would be more costly than acting firmly.”
Revalued pensions
However, inflation in the United States has slowed since its peak in June, when prices rose 9.1% year on year, the largest increase since December 1981.
American old-age and disability pensions, indexed to the CPI, will thus experience their strongest revaluation since January 1981, the American Social Security Administration announced on Thursday. Their index was increased by 8.7%, an average increase in payments of over $ 140 per month.
On a global scale, the fight against high inflation, which affects poor and developing countries even more than developed countries, is now the priority of political leaders.
The effects of the war in Ukraine on energy and food have added to the disruptions in the supply chain linked to Covid-19.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its total inflation forecast for 2022 and 2023 upwards on Tuesday and now expects 8.8% and 6.5%, respectively. And he warned that the recession is likely to hit several developed countries in 2023.
