Inflation is close to 20%, even though demand is weakening (Msn forecasts)

May brought only a slight problem in the supply lines. This was positively reflected in vrob aut even in their sales. Total retail sales i industrial production as a result, they should experience a slight monthly increase. However, there are signs of weakening demand in both the manufacturing and consumer sectors. The development trend for the nearest countries is therefore rather negative from the point of view of economic activity. However, it will probably not be seen much in the price development. Inflation
according to our estimate, it accelerated from 16.0% to 17.4% in April. In Europe, then, for a different reason zdraen energy for households, there will be a jump to 20%, and about the same amount as the middle age inflation should therefore remain for the rest of the summer year.

Baptize industrial production pisplo siln oiven vroby
car

Prmyslov production in May, according to our estimate, the month-on-month rate increased by 0.9%. Compared to April, the tension in the supply chain decreased slightly. This was probably the reason for the killing spree
make a car. According to her, they will be revealed Which increased mid-month by 25% (SA). In the letter of expansion (over 50 points), even a small dog is dreamed, then there is a stanza evaluating the level of production in the index PMI. In the meantime, let’s compare the growth industrial production by 1.1%, after a previous decrease of 3.8% (WDA). Without taking into account the effect of longer working days, average growth should reach 4.3% after April’s decline of 6.4% (NSA). Leton kveten had one working day less than the gloss. IN mind the first signs of weakening demand are beginning to be seen. On the other hand, the number of unannounced orders from previous months should still be relatively high. That would, together with the ongoing improvement away as long as industrial input was supposed to support it industrial
production in the nearest months. However, the development trend is negative, as evidenced by ervnov PMIwhich first after about two years got under border 50 bod.

Nebt your sale aut, retail sales would experience a deep decline

Retail sales no sale aut probably decreased by 0.4% month-on-month in May. The downfall of the planters dvrywhich is near the minimum time series available since 2003, would indicate a deep decline. Consequences a small amount of shops from the previous months shows that consumer demand has been relatively robust so far. To help with this, you have a small household. growth spotebitelskch prices but in the meantime he hastened accordingly, and the more he touched the necessary goods, such as they are grocery store i energy. Navc vbr
given from pidan value in May, it fell significantly after the report, while it grew in the previous two months. Let’s think that it’s May retail
have no sale aut she will be weak. Selling a car on the other hand, they recorded a likely significant increase, which would be in line with your production. New registration paths aut in May they rose by 7.2% month-on-month (SA). In vsledku so there is a slight intermonth increase in the total
retail needs by 0.1%. In the intermediate comparison, due to the influence of the comparator, the components should be total retail sales by 3.7% ni, in ppad have no sale aut then by 2.6% (WDA). The gradual decline in consumer demand will most likely continue in the coming months.

Inflation probably mk 20%

Even in April, there was no reduction in the growth rate
spotebitelskch prices. Mezimsn inflation according to us, it remained at 1.8%, and after the last week it even accelerated from May’s 1.5% to 1.7% in June.
Health with the pit over all groups of consumer goods. According to us, they continued to grow rapidly food prices (around 3% of the NSA), which eroded your prices agricultural commodities a energy. Pokraujc health care
electiny a gas for households, it was reflected in a further rise in regulated prices. As a result zdraen raw oil led to the acceleration of monthly price growth
fuel (from 3.3% in May to 4.2% in April). In ppad kernels of inflation
although there is a slight decrease in the inter-monthly pace, it should accelerate accordingly, from 13.9% to 14.2%. In summary, ekme, e total meziron inflation in April it increased from 16.0% to 17.4%.

In Europe, there will probably be a big price jump due to another shock about electricity prices, gas a heat. This is indicated by the recently published prices of the distributor. In our estimation, yes
electric price a gas for households, there will be an average increase of approximately one-fifth in the inter-city rent. This will manifest itself in a sharp acceleration of the total distance inflation, which will probably rise to 20%. With that in mind, e energy prices for households, however, take into account only a fraction of the wholesale price, it can be significantly higher zdraen about autumn. In vsledku so meziron inflation
it will move around or even slightly above 20% in the second half of the year. Its annual average could then be around 17%. Uncertainty estimate zstv very high. At risk for you inflation are the fifth variable
energy prices. Fast growth spotebitelskch prices could, on the other hand, slow down the overall decline in demand. The effect on the inflation it could also be subsidized
energetick tarif and exemption of payments for renewable resources energytheir introduction (with effect from this autumn) vanishes esk vlda.

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