Source: Ruida Futures Author: Ruida Futures
Research report text
futures market
As of January 20,coking coalThe closing price of the main futures contract was 1886 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price difference between futures JM2309 and JM2305 (far month-near month) is -90 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton from the previous week.
Among the top 20 coking coal positions this week (0116-0120), the increase in long orders was greater than the increase in short orders, and the net short positions decreased.
spot market situation
As of January 20, Shanxi Liulin main coking coal (A9.5, S0.8, V24, G>85, GSR65, Mt10, lithofacies 0.15) was quoted at 2350 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; Jingtang Port Australia imports The market price of main coking coal is 2350 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week; Shanxi Jinzhong medium sulfur main coke (A10, S1.3, V25, G80, Y12, GSR60, Mt8, lithofacies 0.1) is quoted at 2350 yuan/ton, which is the same Last week was flat.
As of January 20, the coking coal basis was 464 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous week.
Upstream situation
In December 2022, the national raw coal output will be 402.69 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% and a month-on-month increase of 2.91%. From January to December 2022, the country’s cumulative raw coal output was 4,495.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9%.
In December 2022, the country imported 30.91 million tons of coal, a decrease of 1.4 million tons from the previous month, a year-on-year decrease of 0.13%, and a month-on-month decrease of 4.33%. From January to December 2022, the country imported a total of 293.2 million tons of coal, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%.
Industry situation
According to Mysteel statistics of 110 samples of coal washing plants across the country, as of January 18, the operating rate of coal washing plants was 63.02%, a decrease of 12.21% from last week.
According to Mysteel statistics of 110 samples of coal washing plants across the country, as of January 18, the raw coal inventory of coal washing plants was 2.5332 million tons, a decrease of 58,100 tons from last week; coal washing plants. Clean coal inventory was 1.6337 million tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last week.
As of January 20, port inventory of imported coking coal: 678,000 tons in Jingtang Port, a decrease of 101,000 tons from last week; 210,000 tons in Rizhao Port, the same as last week; 120,000 tons in Lianyungang, the same as last week; Zhanjiang Port 00,000 tons, the same as last week; Qingdao Port 00,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from last week; the total inventory totaled 1.008 million tons, a decrease of 111,000 tons from last week.
As of January 20, according to Mysteel statistics, the coking coal inventory of 230 sample independent coking plants across the country was 10.894 million tons, an increase of 43,000 tons from last week; Weekly increase of 165,500 tons. The total inventory of coking coal in coking steel plants was 20.0867 million tons, an increase of 208,500 tons from last week.
As of January 20, according to Mysteel’s statistics, the available days of coking coal inventory in 230 sample independent coking enterprises across the country were 14.3 days, a decrease of 0.3 days from last week.
downstream situation
As of January 20, Mysteel counted the full sample of independent coke companies: the capacity utilization rate was 71.8%, a decrease of 0.2% from last week. December 2022,CokeThe output was 39 million tons, an increase of 8% year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of 4.31%. From January to December 2022, coke output will be 473.44 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.93%.
Weekly summary
This week (0116-0120) the domestic coking coal market is weak. In the last week before the festival, many mining areas began to have holidays one after another, the supply of coal continued to tighten, the inventory of raw coal decreased, and there was some support below the coal price. On the demand side, the losses per ton of coke have increased, and the production enthusiasm of coke enterprises has weakened; steel mills have closed their inventory replenishment, and the factories control the procurement of raw materials; traders in the middle link have gradually withdrawn from the lottery, coal mines are under shipping pressure, the spot market is relatively pessimistic, and coking coal is auctioned online The transaction was deserted. In terms of ports, traders wait and see more, and the market transactions are deserted. In terms of imports, the number of customs clearance vehicles at ports fluctuated drastically before the year. It is expected that the coke steel plant will have a certain demand for inventory replenishment after the festival, and the price will fall as the mining area resumes work and the increase in imported Mongolian coal remains stable.
Technically, the JM2305 contract fluctuated upwards, the daily MACD indicator showed that the opening was flat, and the K-line explored the middle track. In terms of operation, it is recommended to treat it with a shocking thinking, refer to 1820-1920.
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