Due to the sharply increased transport costs for shipped goods, inflation could turn out another 1.5 percentage points higher this year. writes the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Over the past 18 months, ocean freight costs have increased sevenfold due to disruptions in transport chains caused by corona.
The IMF’s analysis comes on top of already high inflation expectations. Like this expected The Dutch Central Bank has an inflation rate of almost 7 percent for this year.
According to Edwin Asveld, director of logistics company TransHeroes, the impact of the higher transport costs of containers is underestimated. “People are not aware of that. That link has never been made like this before.” More than eighty percent of goods are transported by sea, mostly in containers, the IMF analysis shows.
earlier Higher energy and food prices were cited in particular as the causes of high inflation. But the IMF writes that transport costs have at least as much influence on the inflation rate. Because although a larger part of our disposable incomes goes to fuel and food, the transport costs of goods by sea fluctuate more. And that is reflected in inflation.
Clothing, tires and screens
In the Netherlands, furniture, toys, clothing, tires and screens in particular are becoming more expensive as a result. “A nice chair of 150 euros can suddenly cost 200 euros,” says Asveld. It is mainly the items that take up a lot of container space that become more expensive, because more containers and ships are needed to transport them.
The IMF has not included the consequences of the war in Ukraine in its analysis. In the past month, container prices showed a small decrease, says Asveld. But due to uncertain factors such as the war and the recent lockdowns in China, the question is whether this downward trend will continue.
And on top of the problems in global maritime trade comes the shortage of personnel in the European road transport† “That also affects inflation,” says Asveld. “To attract people, salaries go up. Transport companies also have to get that money from somewhere.” As a result, products can become even more expensive.
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