For the management of Unieuro, Iliad is the ideal reference shareholder. Low profile, no public interference in management choices. Yet the French TLC group founded by Xavier Niel is the largest shareholder of Unieuro with 12.2%, one and a half times the share of the ‘founder’ Giuseppe Silvestrini.
Iliad had purchased the relative majority stake in Unieuro in April 2021 when the price reached highs around 25 euros. Today it is worth less than half even if Iliad has received important dividends.
What could change in Forlì if Iliad managed to acquire the activities of Vodafone Italia? Before starting with the hypotheses, let’s see what is certain:
The latest offer
Iliad proposes to create a New Company to which both Vodafone and Iliad would contribute their Italian activities. Vodafone Group would receive 50% of this new company and 6.5 billion in cash. Iliad would hold the remaining 50% and inject 2 billion in fresh money. Iliad therefore values Vodafone Italia at 7.8 times its Ebitda (1.34 billion euros for the 2024 financial year according to the broker consensus). Iliad would also have a call option on Vodafone’s stake in NewCo with the right to acquire 10% of NewCo’s share capital every year.
Three scenarios
In the press release with which Iliad announced the offer, there is no mention of Unieuro. We can therefore only make hypotheses.
Which of these scenarios will materialize if Iliad’s offer convinces the parent company’s management? The market does not seem to believe that there are threats to Unieuro nor does it expect the French participation to be put on the market. The day after the announcement of Iliad’s offer, Unieuro shares fell slightly but are still 20% above the lows reached in September.
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2023-12-20 09:40:21
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