After the Fed’s sharp rise in interest rates, end-consumer demand froze sharply. IC designers are caught between the two elephants of brand factories and wafer foundries, and their profit margins are obviously under pressure. Initial Depreciation Pressure Will Be Greater Than Price Pressure At that time, it is expected to “trade price for volume” and even IC designers can breathe a sigh of relief if they are willing to make price concessions.
According to the industry, the brand’s customers have generally started adjusting their orders in the second and third quarters, particularly in the third quarter, the strength of the inventory adjustment has been quite significant. is about a quarter, the level of its stocks continued to rise in the third quarter and the pressure on stocks is increasing day by day.
At the same time, as wafer smelter orders in the third quarter did not change significantly, even though there is a decline in the utilization rate in the fourth quarter, the entity can be controlled. In addition, the end of the 20th National Chinese congress and the arrival of festivals like Double 11 and Christmas at the end of the year, the mount is expected to have some pull, so the fab is still reluctant to make concessions on the price.
However, the industry believes that early next year, wafer fab production capacity may be down due to customers’ reluctance to increase production capacity.Also, after the price of the newly added machines has been raised , the pressure to depreciate is evident Will make concessions on the price.
The industry admits that at this stage, in addition to TSMC (2330-TW) (TSM-USA) insist on raising prices next year, including UMC (2303-TW) (UMC-USA) or the local second and third tier players in China have begun to express the attitude of “as long as there is quantity, the price is easy to negotiate”.
In addition, IC designers believe that next year, in addition to wafer factories, packaging and testing facilities will also start cutting prices. At that time, when costs slow down, the pressure from price cuts can be further passed on to suppliers. time, the cost structure may go back to before the epidemic, symbolizing the official withdrawal of the epidemic bonus of the last two years.
