(CNN) – Ian is already a hurricane, according to the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) 5am ET update.
Hurricane Ian now has 120km / h winds with even higher gusts. Ian is located approximately 145 kilometers southwest of Grand Cayman and approximately 500 kilometers southeast of the western tip of Cuba.
A hurricane was emitted along the west coast of Florida from north of Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.
Although his exact track remains uncertain, Ian strengthened Sunday night as he rattled in the Caribbean, threatening to reach Florida like a hurricane with powerful winds and dangerous swells.
Although Ian is going strong, there remains “greater than usual” uncertainty about his trajectory and intensity, according to the NHC.
Ian is expected to strengthen to a large Category 3 or higher hurricane by Tuesday, the center said.
Ian is expected to get stronger as it approaches western Cuba on Monday morning, potentially reaching a Category 2 force before landing. According to the center, “life-threatening” swells and gale force winds are expected. “Efforts to protect life and property must be completed quickly,” added the forecasters.
Ian is expected to produce “heavy rainfall, flash floods and possible mudslides” in areas of higher ground, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.
The models project different scenarios as to where it might land in Florida and how strong it might be by mid-week. Until this Sunday, forecasters have estimated that Ian will become a Category 4 hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and then weaken before reaching Florida.
Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the lan, Floridians are being asked to prepare for the risk of dangerous storm surges, strong winds, and heavy rain along the west coast and the region known as the Florida Panhandle, the center said.
With possible flash and urban flooding in the Florida Keys and the Florida panhandle by mid-week, a tropical storm warning was issued for the lower Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge south of Key West.
The governor of Florida activates the National Guard
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis activated the National Guard on Sunday morning, saying that while Ian’s path remains uncertain, its impact will be widely felt statewide. State and federal disaster declarations were made over the weekend.
One model predicts Ian will land in the Tampa Bay region, while another model predicts landing in the Panhandle, DeSantis said.
“Everyone in Florida will feel the impact of the storm,” Kevin Guthrie, director of the Florida division of emergency management, told CNN on Sunday.
A big concern is how quickly the storm could escalate, said Jason Dunion, director of the hurricane research field program at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
“The storm can increase its speed by 35 miles per hour (56 kilometers per hour) in one day,” Dunon said. “It can go from a tropical storm to a category 1 (hurricane) or from a category 1 to a category 3 only in that 24-hour period. This makes it particularly important that people pay attention to this storm in the days to come.” .
As Ian approaches, Floridians are asked to stock up on supplies such as radios, water, canned food, and medicine for at least seven days and familiarize themselves with the evacuation routes.
Residents of Tampa and other areas were seen queuing for sandbags as they prepared for Sunday’s storm.
Shoppers line up outside a retail store as people rush to prepare for Tropical Storm Ian, in Kissimmee, Florida on September 25, 2022.
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Filling sandbags with other Orange County community members, Jose Lugo told CNN affiliate WFTV that he knows what can happen if the worst happens.
“It’s better to be prepared than to apologize later,” Lugo said. “I was in Puerto Rico to visit my parents a couple of days before Fiona hit. I was helping them and now I’m here to help myself and everyone else.”
Cities and counties across the state are also preparing.
Officials in Tallahassee, the state capital, are working to remove debris and make sure the city’s power lines and stormwater systems are clear. “We are doing everything we can before the storm to prepare and protect our infrastructure,” said Tallahassee Mayor John Dailey.
St. Petersburg Mayor Kenneth Welch said his city on the Gulf coast of Florida is in a vulnerable position. “Even a tropical storm can bring down our power grid for a long time. We are educating to be prepared and to plan, ”Welch told CNN.
Regardless of how hard the storm hits the state, Florida is bracing for a dangerous storm surge, Guthrie said, when the force of a hurricane or storm pushes ocean water towards the coast.
“We could see a Category 4 storm surge and a Category 1 or 2 landfall situation,” Guthrie said.
Officials in Cape Coral, a city in southwestern Florida known for its many canals, were particularly concerned about storm surges and winds.
“Right now, obviously we are like many other cities, preparing for the worst, hoping for the best,” Cape Coral Mayor John Gunter told CNN.
In Hillsborough County, Ian’s commitment has left the school district “with no choice” other than closing all schools as campuses are turned into storm shelters, according to Hillsborough County Public Schools.
Bethune-Cookman University in Daytona Beach issued a mandatory evacuation order on Saturday and canceled classes on Monday due to the oncoming storm.
Preparations were also underway in Georgia, where Governor Brian Kemp ordered the State Operations Center to be activated on Monday “to prepare for any potential impact of Tropical Storm Ian later in the week.”
“Although models suggest it will weaken before landing Thursday, and its final path has yet to be determined, Ian could cause severe weather damage across much of Georgia,” a press release from the governor’s office said.
Experts urge you not to let your guard down
Dunion said ocean temperatures are currently extremely warm, even deep below the surface, meaning “a lot of fuel to fuel the storms.”
“It can cause a rapid escalation of a storm and many of our models suggest that we will see that rapid escalation in the next few days,” Dunion said.
Ken Graham, NOAA’s deputy administrator of meteorological services, told CNN that rainfall is a leading cause of death in strong tropical systems.
“When you close your eyes and think of a hurricane, you think of the wind, but it’s the water that really hurts people and that’s what we really need to talk about. And it’s increasing with climate change,” Graham said.
Even if it hits like a Category 2 hurricane, Ian could cause a significant storm surge, Graham said. “In fact, there can be more people affected by a storm when it expands like this. So people can’t let their guard down, regardless of category,” he added.
“Many people judge the current storm from what they have experienced in the past and the reality is that each storm is completely different,” Graham said.
Robert Shackelford, Melissa Alonso, Caitlin Kaiser, and CNN’s Michelle Watson contributed to this report.
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