By the end of 2020, a year marked by the pandemic and isolation measures, private sector analysts project an inflation of 39.5% and one dollar at $ 86.4, as reported by the Central Bank in its monthly Survey of Market Expectations.
Market analysts modified their projections with respect to the last part made official by the financial institution. Both the retail price index and the nominal exchange rate have corrections compared to June.
At the end of July, market analysts projected that retail inflation for December 2020 will be at 39.5% year-on-year, decreasing by 1.2 pp the forecasts provided at the end of June.
For June 2020 the average of the estimates suggested an inflation of 2.0% per month, but the official data registered 2.2%. For the month of July 2020, the median of the estimates made is 2.4%.
Regarding the dollar, those who participate in the REM forecast that the average nominal exchange rate will reach $ 86.4 per dollar in December 2020, with an adjustment of – $ 1.6 per dollar compared to the previous report. There was also a downward adjustment in its monthly projections, contemplating it reaching $ 123.2 per dollar by the end of 2021.
Those who more accurately forecast this variable with short-term horizons project that the average nominal exchange rate for the end of December 2020 will reach $ 86.2 per dollar.
On the other hand, a contraction of the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected for 2020 of 12.5.
Those who participate in REM forecast a greater expansion of activity for the third quarter of 2020 (8.0% se), foreseeing that the level of economic activity will continue to increase during the last quarter of the year (6.0%), which denotes that the period of greatest impact of the pandemic has already been passed.
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