I gasoline and diesel prices for cars and trucking have increased dramatically since theaggression unleashed by Vladimir Putin against Ukraine. And sadly, in itself, this is hardly surprising news. But also unavoidable news or could the price increases at least be more contained? And Italy is turning out to be an international anomaly or simply what happens in our country reflects, more or less, an international shock on oil prices?
The only way to figure it out look at the official data in the comparison between Italy and international indices and the answer – it must be said immediately – a if a no. No, Italy is largely not an international anomaly in the recent sharp increases in the price of fuel at the pump. But yes, we could pay at least about 5% less in our country if the tensions on the markets were not matched by the behavior of some operators that seem to be opportunistic and speculative.
How is it possible? In purely industrial terms, the fuel you pay at the filling station should reflect the oil prices of about a month earlier, as this is a plausible time frame that separates the refiners’ purchase of the crude and the sale of the oil. gasoline or diesel retail. In reality, for the entire supply chain, it tends to anticipate barrel increases, immediately transferring them to the final consumer. Also this time it happened on the international level, albeit only in part. Since the beginning of the year, Brent has risen by 45.6% while – according to the international Platt’s index – gasoline has done so by 20% and diesel by 29.3%. Since the beginning of the attack on Ukraine (taking February 21, the day when Putin signs the recognition of the pseudo-republics of Donbass), Brent has grown by 22%, gasoline internationally by 9.9% and diesel 16.7%.
These are the first criteria to keep in mind to understand if what is happening in Italy is really anomalous compared to the rest of Europe. After all, we know the starting situation: after taxes, fuel in our country has a cost below the European averagebut once the tax burden is added, the cost to the consumer has more than doubled and is by far among the highest in the European Union.
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But what happened this time? Compared to international increases, even after taxes, gasoline in Italy has risen by more: by 27.6% since the beginning of the year (against 20% of the Platt’s index) and 10.7% since the start of the war (against 9.9% of the Platt’s index). Diesel fuel in Italy, on the other hand, has risen in line with the rest of the world since the beginning of the year (plus about 29%) and even less since the beginning of the war (plus 11%), again net of very exorbitant taxes.
All normal then, all inevitable? Not really, in fact not at all. The complaint of the Minister of Ecological Transition on speculative prices at the pump does not seem at all unfounded. Andrea Rossetti, president of Assopetroli (the association of retail distributors), reports that since the beginning of the war there have been profound anomalies in the supply chain. In particular one: usually in Italy the refining or importing companies of the already refined product apply a spread (or premium, brokerage commission) of 8 cents per liter for resale to the distributor, equal to approximately 5.5% of the price today of diesel on the Platt’s index. The anomaly that, since the beginning of the war, this spread has exploded: some companies make it rise to 11% of the product before taxes, others have even imposed it at almost 19.7% of the net cost of the basic product.
Rossetti observes: This is an unprecedented phenomenon in a market with very few operators and does not seem to have justifications. Certainly if this commission from importers and refiners returned to the normal levels of a few weeks ago, petrol and diesel – once taxes are also counted – could be up to 5% cheaper for the final consumer in Italy. Not to mention the particular case of gasoline, the price of which is growing more than in the rest of the advanced countries, even without counting the surcharges of intermediaries throughout the supply chain.
A part of the rises in recent days are therefore inevitable, but not all.
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