The omikron variant of the coronavirus was recently discovered in South Africa and there is still a lot of uncertainty about this. The fear is that the new variant is more contagious. Because in the Gauteng province, where the capital Johannesburg is also located, the infection figures are rising fast.
Also the number hospital admissions in that province has recently risen sharply. A total of 959 people are now in hospital there, compared to 136 two weeks ago.
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It is not yet clear whether this is due to the omikron variant. “But probably,” says immunologist Ger Rijkers.
“Before the omikron variant was discovered, there was a clear decrease in the number of hospital admissions. We now have to wait and see whether the current increase will continue.” In the other eight South African provinces, the corona figures have increased little or not at all.
Low vaccination coverage
Vaccination coverage is low in South Africa. This allows the virus to circulate more quickly and new mutations can continue to develop. In addition, people end up in hospital faster as a result.
About 28 percent of the South African population has received a first shot of the corona vaccine. The African continent as a whole has a vaccination rate of about 10 percent.
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The hope is that this variant may be more contagious, but also less sick. You can now hear those sounds carefully from South Africa. Many of the infected people would have mild complaints.
Young population
But a major caveat must be made: ”The South African population is on average a lot younger compared to the Netherlands”, says Rijkers. About 95 percent of the population is under 65 years of age.
“Most infections are among relatively young people. We now know that young people have milder complaints about the other corona variants.
Children in hospitals
It is striking that in South Africa relatively many young children are admitted because of corona. That is disturbing, says Rijkers. “Although we do not know whether they are infected with the omikron variant. Moreover, this cannot be compared with the Netherlands: the conditions in which young children grow up are very different in South Africa.
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What is also different from the Netherlands: the summer months have just started in the southern hemisphere. Does that also affect the corona figures?
Rijkers: ”It’s hard to say. First of all, because the winters in South Africa are not very cold either. So we don’t know whether this coming winter will hit Omikron harder in that country. Which seasonal effect is not yet very clear for various corona variants.”
air traffic
From list of countries that ban flights to and from southern African countries is getting longer. An understandable reaction, according to Rijkers.
“But at best you can slow down the spread a bit with it. Prevention is not possible. We already have the omikron variant in the Netherlands, other countries that impose bans will see that the variant will also appear there soon. It’s a bit of a false sense of security.”
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In short: there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the omikron variant. Fortunately, South Africa is very open about sharing their data. More clarity is expected later this week. It is important to know how sick people become from this variant, and whether the vaccines protect against it well. A lot of research is now being done on this,” says Rijkers.
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