from Gino Pagliuca
The data contained in the study of Real Estate Scenarios «Future Cities: report on the new suburbs» focused on the issues of urban regeneration. The critical points: the increase in the cost of mortgages and the scarce supply of new homes
The real estate demand in Milan is growing in the suburbsbut if we look at the price trend, at least of those relating to new or recent houses and in good condition, the 90-91 bypass still remains a rather clear line of demarcation of the market, given that almost all the areas with the best performance of price are located either at the border or within the city’s third ring road. According to the data released on Wednesday morning by Scenari immobiliare at the presentation of the study “Future Cities: report on new suburbs”focused on the issues of urban regeneration in the capital and in Lombardy. According to a recent study by Unipol, one out of three Milanese will move from the center to the suburbs in the next two years.
The greatest increase in prices in the city, in 2022, was recorded in piazza Firenze (+14.1%), followed by viale Gorizia and viale Tibaldi. The five-year ranking sees the Solari area prevail (+27.2), followed by Piazza Lima and Corso Sempione (via Losanna-Arona). At ten years of age, the highest podium is that of the island (47.3)where, however, rather than a recovered suburb, perhaps one can speak ofthe only case of “gentrification” in Italy. Viale Stelvio and viale Jenner follow. In Lombardy, excluding the capital from the calculation, the greatest revaluation in the last year is that of the walled city of Como (+9.5); at five years the same winner, with 18.2%, while at 10 Bergamo Alta prevails (+29%).
Milan in the central and semi-central areas, and also the other capitals in the prestigious areas, now have very few opportunities for new real estate developments and urban regeneration, mainly with the recovery of abandoned industrial areas, takes place in the city suburbs. According to the Scenari report, 21 square kilometers of territory were recovered in 2022 in Lombardy (to give a term of comparison it is a value more than double compared to the area occupied by zone 1 of Milan), and over 7 km in the regional capital and its hinterland.
Commenting on the study data the president of Scenari immobiliare, Mario Bregliahe also gave an overview of the situation of the Milanese market and its prospects. The residential sector alone will record significant growth in the value of sales this year, thanks to the increase in both prices and transactions, which Scenari estimates at more than 10% on an annual basis, all for a total of 12.3 billion to add another 6 for investments in non-residential buildings. However, the data assumes that in the fourth quarter of the year there will be no drop in trade after that reported in the third quarter.
Among the positive data mentioned by Breglia is that of absorptionthat is, the percentage of homes put on the market which, presumably, left the market during the year because they were sold: we are at 88.4%, close to the all-time high. So all right? No, Breglia signals two critical issues: the increase in the cost of mortgages, which in a city with Milan prices has more effect than elsewhere, and the low supply of new homes. Those that exist, in all areas of Milan, today are sold to a large extent on paper.
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