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“Homeless people should buy a house first. Waiting for the right time will only widen the wealth gap.”
Hyung-seok Shim, Director of the Woodae Bread Research Institute (Photo57) is When asked in an interview with “The wealth gap between the homeless and the homeless will narrow during the housing adjustment period,” he said, “Not at all.”
Director Shim said: “I watched a lot of homeless people, but I couldn’t buy a house worth 1 billion won because it would go down to 500 million won, and when the 500 million won house became 1 billion won, it wasn’t. I couldn’t buy it because it was ‘too expensive’. ” Most people haven’t been able to take the opportunity, even during the recession, “he said.
As the housing crisis recovers, the wealth gap between the homeless and the homeless is expected to widen. He said, “As they say, ‘People who ate meat eat a lot’, more people buy houses and people who have money can earn more.” He said, “The activities don’t continue to decline. The same goes for people who will one day recover, and if you think carefully about who will benefit right now, people with resources earn.”
“Volatility and the bear market are a time for people with money to seize opportunities,” he said.
“The real estate market is starting to adjust … It could be missing for a year or two”
Currently, downward trends are occurring in various parts of the national housing market. It has entered the adjustment phase. Director Shim said, “The stagnant atmosphere that began in areas that rose like water falling into a lake is spreading to areas that prefer housing. It is adapting rapidly.”
He continued: “The region where there has been a large investment gap is no exception,” he said.
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The decline in house prices is expected to continue for another year or two. “After the loan settlement in December 2019, it will be similar to the flow of house prices in 2020,” Shim said.
The reason we believe the correction will continue is because of interest rates. Rather than the simple reason of ‘rising interest rates → increasing interest load → decreasing purchasing power’, it is necessary to examine why interest rates have been rising rapidly recently.
He said: “The reason Korea and the US are raising interest rates so quickly is to capture inflation, which has soared due to sudden problems like the Russia-Ukraine crisis,” he said. an interest rate hike to do that, “she said.
He continued: “As winter sets in, oil consumption will increase, which will affect oil prices, but could drive inflation up again.” the rates, which depend on it, can also increase further “.
“The current real estate market is not normal”
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The current housing market has been diagnosed as “abnormal”. Usually, when the price goes up or down, the term “abnormal” is used, but director Shim rated it as “abnormal” because it was difficult to even judge.
“The current housing market is extremely abnormal,” Shim said. Because that’s not the case, “she said.
He also pointed out that “special transactions such as direct transactions and gifts, and special transactions such as the temporary sale of single and semi-detached houses, occur intermittently and it is difficult to achieve statistically significant results with a small volume of transactions.”.
He said this anomalous market was formed because the real estate policy implemented by the Yun Seok-yeol government was wrong. He said: “If you look at the main policies introduced by the current government, you can say that the transfer tax for multi-residential owners is in the middle and is deferred, and the win-win system can be seen as a system to increase. the number of properties, that is, to increase the supply to the market. “It is almost never. It is a policy that benefits new home buyers, but the policy of supply and the policy of demand are not well balanced, ”he said.
“The reality is that the market is piling up for sale and the backlog is not resolved because the policy of expanding supply without a policy of increasing demand, such as lowering the purchase tax, is the reality.” , the current government, on the other hand, has just been selling too much, so the price is going down. It should be back in line with the logic of the market, but it’s not happening, “he added.
Hyung-seok Shim worked as a researcher at the Korea Institute of Construction Industry and then as the director of Real Estate R114, a real estate research firm. He has taught students as an associate professor at Youngsan University and a professor at Sungkyul University. He is currently a professor at International American University in the United States and also director of the Daewoo Bread Real Estate Research Institute.
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astronaut. housekeeper (宇), homeowner (宙) and person (人). The symbolism of a house in Korea is unique. The home, which is supposed to be a space for living and resting, is at some point intertwined with financial technology, and if you can’t take it in hand, you will feel a sense of relative deprivation. Through “Song-ryeol Lee’s Astronaut”, we hear real estate stories through people. [편집자주]
Reporter Lee Song-ryeol at Hankyung.com [email protected]
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