A weather forecast predicts 42 degrees in the Lüneburg Heath. Can a heat wave like this happen? Kreiszeitung.de asked the DWD.
Hanover – Is a new heat wave rolling towards Germany? If you want to believe the weather forecast, it will be hot again in the coming week, at least in the southern half of Germany. However, another forecast by an American weather model shows that there should be a record heat of up to 42 degrees in the Lüneburg Heath in Lower Saxony. How can that be? Kreiszeitung.de asked the German Weather Service (DWD).
42 degrees in the Lüneburg Heath: just last week heat wave with 40 degrees
Just last week, there was a heat wave that brought up more than 40 degrees in some parts of Lower Saxony and Germany. Uelzen is also scratching the 40 degree limit. And with the extreme weather and heat come the extreme wildfires that break out in the European holiday countriesbut also in the Saxon Switzerland or Brandenburg had led to devastation and considerable damage.
New heat wave in Germany: In the southern half again up to 36 degrees
“Overall, July 2022 was significantly too warm, significantly too dry and very sunny.” And this situation will hardly change for the coming week, according to the weather forecasts of the DWD. Over the course of the week, it should be permanently over 30 and even up to 36 degrees in south-west Germany.
But with the heat come those too official warnings of severe thunderstorms with squalls, hail and heavy rain. In Lower Saxony, on the other hand, it should remain cloudy from the coming week, with rain and isolated thunderstorms. But doesn’t the weather forecast of the American model predict something exactly different?
New heat wave: is the heat bang in Germany coming to the Lüneburg Heath?
According to statements by Dr. Markus Bösel, spokesman for the DWD, there is a statement about such a heat blast, which is four to ten days in the future, in the so-called medium-term forecast. From the fourth day of the forecast, the uncertainty of a weather forecast increases more and more. “To put it bluntly, it can happen that even a forecast just five days into the future is hardly possible and is like reading coffee grounds. In other cases, on the other hand, you can even predict the direction of the weather quite well seven days in advance, although it is still too early for details,” the expert explains to kreiszeitung.de.
To put it bluntly, it can happen that even a prediction only five days into the future is hardly possible and is like reading the coffee grounds
Heat in Lower Saxony: weather forecast depending on the consideration of several models
Isn’t such a statement playing with people’s fears? Fall into the Germans in this Summer not in a heat panic? It depends on what kind of statement it is. Because, as the DWD spokesman knows, “it is essential for a meteorologist to compare several models or different model runs.” Each of the common weather models creates weather forecasts that are updated several times a day, so-called model runs. These can be erratic or constant, and this indicates certainty or uncertainty in the weather development.
There are also ensemble forecasts. According to the expert on possible heat waves in Germany, a model calculates up to 40 or 50 times at the same time with slightly different initial conditions. The initial state is never exactly known. This gives you a whole host of forecasts that you can compare with each other.
Heat wave next week: weather forecast and extreme heat only an outlier
“If you compare different model runs of the GFS, other models and the ensemble forecasts, then you quickly see that the forecast run you mentioned is an absolute outlier,” summarizes Markus Übel in view of the possible heat wave in Germany. Even if one cannot completely rule out the extreme heat for the Lüneburg Heath, this variant is to be assessed as very unlikely.
Heat wave in Germany: High temperatures in the south “quite safe”
“Currently it looks like very hot temperatures, sometimes over 35 degrees again, are likely again in the middle of next week, especially in the southern half of Germany Visibility still very unclear,” the DWD spokesman gives an outlook for the coming week.
The variability in the ensembles is still very high, especially for the north, and the comparison of different models also suggests a high degree of uncertainty. While high temperatures are almost certain in the south, “everything is still possible for northern Germany, from rather cool weather to normal summer weather to the return of the heat”.
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