The country faces a complex situation. The sanitation measures have failed to control the contamination of the coronavirus and have generated consequences on the economy that were not anticipated and adequately faced.
The epidemiological equation that occurs in multiple phenomena of physics, thermodynamics and economics is represented by an expression in which the degree of contamination (number of contaminated) is an exponential function of the rate of contamination (new contaminated). The relationship is the result of nature and can only be partially regulated. Successful countries are those that have been able to systematically reduce the pollution rate, either by nature or by hospital actions. General distancing procedures, such as the forties, are irregular and uncertain.
The experience of the last century and the recent one reveal two behaviors. In the first case the contamination decreases, the degree increases until reaching the peak and then decreases until it disappears. In the second case, the contamination rate rises, the degree of contamination evolves irregularly and the peak of the curve moves away and becomes uncertain.
The countries that have reached the peak of the curve in shorter periods are those that have followed the first path. In contrast, countries that have followed the second path have been forced into irregular processes in which the peak recedes and it is not known when it is reached.
The result in Colombia is heartbreaking. The level of contagion and deaths has increased due to system deficiencies. The initial flattening of the curve to avoid collapse of the hospital system was done in exchange for distancing the peak and making it imprecise. The truth is that it contributed to increasing infections and deaths.
Things have not gone well either in correcting the side effects on the economy. The confinement was justified in the high international circles of the OECD, the international credit organizations and prestigious growth tanks that predicted that the reduction in savings caused by the confinement would be offset by an increase in indebtedness that would enter the economies via fiscal deficit. The recipe was expected to cause a drop in productive activity that would recover in less than a year. In a short time, economies would recover historical trends.
What happened? The free market organization of openness that comes from behind and the central bank founded on market idealism simply did not counteract the monumental internal imbalance caused by confinement.
Fiscal deficit policy, close to 10% of GDP, lower interest rates and financial stimuli did not prevent the collapse of production, employment and income distribution. In light of the information for the first semester, it is estimated that the national product will fall 10%, employment 20% and the poverty and income distribution indices will fall several years.
Both in health and in the economy there are theoretical flaws that must be remedied. Epidemiological efforts need to focus on reducing the contamination rate through hospital and administrative procedures that identify, treat, and separate patients. It is not logical that the delivery of the results exceed the gestation period of the virus.
In economics, there are not many options to recover production, growth and income distribution that change the Bank of the Republic’s model of independence that causes the internal imbalance between spending and the national product and triggers unemployment.
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