HC expects the dollar to rise more than 16.30 pounds by the end of d

02:54 PM

Saturday 11 April 2020

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I wrote – Yasmine Selim:

A report of HC Securities and Investment expects the pound to rise against the dollar to 16.34 pounds at the end of next December.

According to a report by the company today, Saturday, on its expectations regarding the crisis of the spread of the Corona virus, by calculating the value of inflation within the real effective exchange rate model, we have a rate of the pound against the dollar at 16.34 pounds at the end of December 2020, and this expectation comes to be slightly higher than the previous expectations of the company, which came in. The price is 16.26 pounds at the end of December.

The average dollar exchange rate against the pound is currently 15.68 pounds for purchase and 15.81 pounds for sale, according to central bank data.

Monit Doss, a macroeconomic and banking sector analyst at HC, said inflation could accelerate to 11.45% year-on-year by December.

She added that the measures taken by the Central Bank recently may lead to stability in the price of the Egyptian pound.

According to Monett, food prices have risen following the announcement of the spread of the Corona virus in Egypt and it is likely to continue to be high due to a possible supply shortage.

She said that this matter may exceed the efforts of the Egyptian government to monitor the prices of basic commodities and provide these commodities at moderate prices.

Inflation may rise to the end of the year, with a monthly increase of about 1%, to reach the maximum by December at 11.5% on an annual basis, compared to the figure expected by the Egyptian government at 9.8% in the event of a continuation of the Corona virus crisis to the end of 2020, according to Monet.

The report does not expect any revenues for the tourism sector in March, except for the first week.

The report reduced expectations for tourism revenues in Egypt during the fourth quarter of the current fiscal year by 60% compared to the same period last fiscal year.

The report predicted a decrease in tourism receipts by almost 16% year on year to reach $ 10.6 billion in the current fiscal year and nearly 21% less than the company’s previous forecast, which came at $ 13.4 billion.

Monit Doss said in the report that Egyptians ’remittances from abroad are expected to decrease by almost 10% on an annual basis during the second half of this fiscal year, compared to a decrease of 8% during the 2008-2009 fiscal year, which is the year of the global financial crisis.

She added: “We expect that the volume of remittances from Egyptians abroad will reach $ 25.1 billion at the end of the current fiscal year, which is approximately 11% less than our previous expectation of $ 28.2 billion, knowing that the volume of remittances increased by almost 15% in the first half of The current fiscal year. “

These assumptions will lead to a current account deficit of $ 10.5 billion for the current fiscal year, higher than previous company expectations, according to the report.

The value of foreign direct investment will drop by nearly 7% year on year in the second half of the current fiscal year to reach $ 3.8 billion, according to Monet.

She said that this percentage will be less than a previous forecast of 23%, which came at $ 4.9 billion.

She added: “The extension of the closing periods and the slowdown in international trade will lead to a saving in the volume of imports to Egypt, and from here, we see that the deficit in the trade balance of Egypt may decrease to achieve 31.5 billion dollars for the current fiscal year, compared to our previous expectations, which came at 35.8 billion dollars.”

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