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The latest proposal appears 48 hours after the expiry of the ultimatum decided by Giuseppe Conte. In the same hours in which the Government puts in line all the steps that lead from the revocation of the concession to the new management of the motorways. Here is the Benetton proposal: a discount for the purchase of Autostrade. Where by discount we mean that whoever buys – and the hook is launched at Cassa Depositi e Prestiti – can do so by subtracting from the initial price the cost that could be incurred for the damages linked to the collapse of the Morandi bridge. In this way – it is the reasoning – there is no indemnity, that is, the exemption from liability for the damages of what happened in Genoa, which is what the Cassa places as a condition for closing an agreement. But – and here is mediation – there is a monetization of risk: you pay less.
The Benetton discount card
On Tuesday, the boards of directors of Atlantia and Autostrade will deliberate a position consistent with the path started last week. The one that registered the opposition of the Government and the Cassa because it was different from the scheme of the July night agreement. Instead, the two companies will reiterate that the procedure initiated is a market procedure, consistent with the letter of commitments that they sent to Palazzo Chigi on the night of 14 July. And they will also say that what was foreseen in the letter received from the government last Wednesday is not good. That is, Article 10 which binds the closure of a transaction agreement and therefore the stop to the revocation of Atlantia’s obligation to sell to the Cassa is not okay. The message that will come out of the boards is that it is too stringent a constraint, which would never be approved by shareholders, especially foreign ones.
It is within this framework that the mediation proposal takes shape, traveling on a parallel track to the decisions of the boards of directors. One of the two options of the scheme initiated by Atlantia envisages the exit of Autostrade from the enclosure of the parent company and the creation of a new Autostrade. 33% of this new company will initially be owned by Atlantia. This is where the proposal fits. The Cassa can make an assessment of the asset and at the same time an assessment of what the risk it would face if responsibility for Autostrade should emerge from the process underway in Genoa. From the price of the asset – this is the proposal – the cost of risk is subtracted. In this way, the Bank pays less for the asset and, however, there is no indemnity. Only this proposal has two other elements. The first: the indemnity discount option applies to the Bank but also applies to all the other investors who are coming forward these days. The second: the Cassa will make its risk assessment, but the price of this risk will be agreed with Atlantia.
This is the maximum point of mediation that Benettons are willing to offer to recompose the breakdown of the negotiator. Indemnification, as requested by the Cassa, is not part of the options because it is timeless and without a ceiling. The risk is that the old guard finds himself paying forever and a figure without a roof.
The Government’s road map for revocation
Whether the Cassa will accept this proposal is a theme that runs parallel to what the Government is doing in these hours. Conte repeated it several times in the evening face to face on Saturday with the Minister of Economy Roberto Gualtieri and the owner of Transport Paola De Micheli: “Either the Benettons return to the agreements of July 14 by September 30 or they are revoked”. And the preparation of the revocation process has already begun. In reality, it was never closed because the procedure was initiated in the aftermath of the Morandi collapse and then went through five letters that the Government and Autostrade exchanged until May last year. Then the mediation took over, the agreement of 14 July. Until the settlement proposal that the executive sent to Autostrade on 2 September.
The key point for understanding the Government’s orientation is here: the withdrawal procedure has never stopped. And all the discussions that have taken place up to now, from the settlement act, to the new economic and financial plan, up to the renunciation of appealing to the serious breach, are proposals and acts to be included in the revocation procedure. Then – is the executive’s reasoning – the Act did not reach a common sharing, it was skipped and then the revocation procedure is brought to the heart. Such as? Government work is already in an advanced state. It will be the Council of Ministers of October 2 that will have to take note of the decision from which Conte does not want to back down unless the Benettons return to the July 14 scheme. The indication will therefore be to revoke the concession for “serious breach”. And a passage is not excluded in which reference is made to a “deliberately dilatory attitude” of Atlantia in the negotiations with the Bank. At that point the Ministry of Transport will issue a managerial decree: an administrative act of resolution of the Convention that becomes effective with the signature of De Micheli and Gualtieri. Then the decree will pass to the Court of Auditors for the green light. Who will manage the highways? Under current legislation, article 35 of the Milleproroghe decree establishes that management is up to Anas until the ministry assigns the concession by virtue of a European tender and the unpacking of the kilometers of motorways into four lots. However, if the Council of Ministers deems that the management of Anas is not appropriate then it will be necessary to amend Article 35 in Parliament. In that case, one of the hypotheses is that a commissioner is appointed for the temporary management of the network.
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