“Global warming to surpass 1.5-degree limit in coming years, warns WMO”

The fact that the chance that the temperature increase from 2023 to 2027 will exceed 1.5 degrees has increased does not mean that the target from the climate agreement can no longer be achieved. “However, the WMO is sounding the alarm that we will temporarily and increasingly exceed the level of 1.5 degrees,” says Secretary-General Petteri Taalas of the WMO.

At the end of March, researchers said that the possibilities of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees are quickly disappearing. “In the next five years, emissions will have to fall sharply, otherwise not only the 1.5-degree target will be jeopardized, but the other Paris goal of ‘staying well below 2 degrees’ will also come under pressure,” he said. one of the researchers.

In any case, according to the WMO, it is almost certain that the next five years will yield new temperature records. There is a 98 percent chance that at least one of the next five years will be the warmest on record.

2016 is still the hottest year ever measured. In addition to greenhouse gas emissions, this was also partly due to El Niño, a weather phenomenon around the Pacific Ocean that causes extreme weather almost everywhere in the world. Now another El Niño is expected in the coming months. This usually leads to global temperatures rising a year later. In this case, that is in 2024.

What is El Niño and what does this weather phenomenon lead to? NOS op 3 explains it in this video:

“Average temperatures are expected to continue to rise, moving us further and further away from the climate we are accustomed to,” says one of the scientists behind the new climate report from the WMO.

Climate change also changes precipitation patterns. For the next five years, the scientists expect more precipitation in northern Europe, Alaska, the Sahel in Africa and northern Siberia, and less in the Amazon and parts of Australia.