After the debate about the New Year’s Eve riots, a survey sees the CDU ahead of the Berlin elections – and Giffey’s SPD in trouble. Will the Greens benefit in the end?
Berlin – As early as mid-February, the citizens of Berlin were once again called to the polls. The House of Representatives election in the capital will be repeated – according to the current state of affairs. According to a survey published on Wednesday (January 18), the CDU could be the beneficiary of the situation: For the first time in almost three years, the conservatives are in the Sunday question from rbb and Berlin morning post back in front.
Unclouded joy is not the order of the day for CDU country chief Kai Wegner. On the one hand, after the hard-ball debate about New Year’s Eve riots and migration a possible coalition partner with the Greens has already waved it off. On the other hand, according to the survey, the SPD, Greens and Left Party together continue to have a majority.
Berlin election: survey sees CDU in front – citizens are obviously very dissatisfied
the “Berlin trend” In any case, according to the infratest dimap institute, the CDU is now in the lead with 23 percent in the Sunday question. Apparently, many Berliners would like the Christian Democrats to head the state government: 30 percent of those surveyed declared this preference, six percent more than in the previous survey in the series. The SPD only wants to see 23 percent at the top of the Berlin Senate – a drop of a whopping nine percent.
| 18 percent (-1) | 21 percent (-1) | 23 percent (+2) | 11 percent (0) | 11 percent (+1) | 6 percent (+1) | 10 percent (-2) |
Source: survey by infratest dimap for rbb/Berliner Morgenpost (January 18)
The survey data published by rbb also make it clear that people in Berlin are at odds with politics in the city-state: two-thirds are dissatisfied with the Senate – the state government. Only 37 percent approve of the performance of the Governing Mayor Franziska Giffey (SPD). According to the report, both numbers are the worst of any German state government.
New survey before the Berlin election: Giffey’s power options are dwindling
And indeed it looks as if Giffey could fail to be re-elected as Berlin’s head of government. Because the Greens are in second place in the Sunday question: they come to 21 percent, the SPD only 18 percent.
This would make Greens top candidate Bettina Jarasch the new head of government in Berlin according to the usual mechanisms if the SPD, Greens and Left Party once again agree on an alliance. This is despite the fact that, according to infratest dimap, only 15 percent of those surveyed would vote for Jarasch in a direct election. Giffey (34 percent) and CDU man Wegner (20 percent) come off much better.
CDU has the lead in the polls before the Berlin elections – Greens could still win the race
Contradictory wishes and numbers, then. Ultimately, if the election actually produces similar values, Giffey’s SPD could lose the mayor’s office, but at the same time become kingmaker.
According to the survey, three coalitions with their own government majority would be possible in Berlin. In addition to Green-Red-Red, that would also be Jamaica (CDU, Greens, FDP) and a “Germany Coalition” made up of the CDU, SPD and FDP. If the Greens continue to rule out a pact with the CDU, the SPD could decide: as a junior partner again with the Greens and Left in the government – or together with the FDP, help the CDU and Wegner into office. The Berlin-FDP with 6 percent of the poll probably has to worry about being deducted into the House of Representatives. Similar to her party friends before the state elections in Bavaria.
However, it is possible that the SPD also has reservations about an alliance with the CDU after the first name debate about the New Year’s Eve riots. On Wednesday (January 18), the Bundestag also argued about the issue. There were harsh words from the Social Democrats towards the Union. (fn)
