The short answer? Get used to it. Because even in the long term, four years from now, there will be a shortage of personnel, it is to be expected.
Unemployment rising slightly
Unemployment has risen slightly since April, but Peter Hein van Mulligen does not want to call it more than a “slight turnaround”. He is chief economist at Statistics Netherlands (CBS).
Unemployment is on the rise after years of decline as more and more people have started looking for work. On the other hand, even more people have lost their jobs in recent months.
These people can find a new job less easily than in the past period. This is due to uncertainty creeping into the economy, says Rob Witjes, a work expert at the UWV charity.
Hesitation on vacancies
“This puts employers in a dilemma: they want to keep people for a long time, but they also face higher costs,” says Witjes. And the easiest way to cut costs is to not hire new people for a while. “We hear from employers that they are considering waiting with vacancies,” he says.
This is not yet reflected in the figures, but hesitation is there, says Witjes. In Westland, for example, where growers have to contend with high energy costs. “If they stay that high, will they still need so many employees?”
A little more offer
“Of course there are companies in these uncertain circumstances that are affected by something,” says Dominique Hermans, CEO of Randstad Netherlands. It could be the high price of energy or the disrupted supply chain. “It happens here and there,” Hermans says. But it’s not as prevalent as you might think when you add up the signals, he adds.
The fact that the economy appears to be cooling off could be beneficial for a company desperate for staff, such as NS. “We are not there to cheer, but the fishing pond seems to be getting bigger,” says NS spokesman Erik Kroeze. “But whether that happens quickly enough is the question.”
The transport company has 2200 vacancies. “There are also places that we expect to have to fill in the future,” explains Kroeze. NS has to find them on time, due to the delay effect, because new personnel also have to be trained as drivers or train drivers.
According to Kroeze, September was a low point in terms of congestion on the railways and now things are improving. However, for the time being, NS still operates on a more sober calendar than it did before the coronavirus crisis. He doesn’t dare say when the service will return to the old level. “It depends on many factors”.
Shortcomings everywhere
And for the moment the misery of aviation is not over either. Schiphol Airport recently announced this cancel thousands of flights until 2023 due to lack of security personnel.
And airline KLM also suffers from “huge shortages in the job market,” according to CEO Marjan Rintel. The shortage on the labor market affects almost all sectors and throughout the national territory.
The problem will not only be solved. The reason is simple. The aging of the population. “The Netherlands is getting older and older, which means that the number of retirees is on the rise.”
Aging is coming
As a result, the group of people who can work is getting smaller and smaller in proportion to the group that cannot or should not work. “That ratio will be around 50 percent,” says Hermans van Randstad. Van Mulligen: “Whatever happens with this crisis”.
From 2025 there will be a notch in terms of aging, agrees Witjes. “Especially in government, health, transport and education. There are an above average number of people over 60 in those sectors,” the UWV expert knows.
Other sectors also continue to suffer from staff shortages. Witjes predicts that the demand for ICT specialists will remain high due to the ever increasing digitization of society. And then there is the energy transition, which requires many electricians, mechanics and other professionals.
Competition between sectors
Another political plan is putting further pressure on the labor market: making nurseries free. “Then demand will increase in an industry where there is already a shortage,” notes Witjes. This will create competition between sectors. “Everyone attracts the same group of people, for example between sustainability and building houses”.
Can’t more people work then? Unfortunately: the group of unemployed who are not actively looking for work, but would like to work, is shrinking, says Van Mulligen.
The participation rate – the number of people working between the ages of 15 and 75 – is therefore historically high. “He can still go up a bit, but not much is expected,” said Witjes.
Ukrainian migrant workers or refugees are also not the Holy Grail. Getting them to work in the right place requires a lot of guidance. “People come this way, but they aren’t selected if they can install a solar panel, for example,” explains Witjes.
Hence, a lot of investment will have to be made in training and continuing education. The cabinet is working on creating regional job centers that people can enter if they want help with retraining.
