German CDU leader selects “male version of Merkel”-Finance News

German CDU leader selects “male version of Merkel”

The CDU’s inner-party elections are over, and the curtain of the “post-Merkel era” begins?

Author: Kai Kang

“521 votes!” In the election of the party congress of the German ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the governor of North Rhine Westphalia (North Rhine-Westphalia) Amin Raschelt was elected as the new party chairman.

This marks the reopening of the transfer of power in the post-Merkel era.

What makes Raschelt, who has never been a maverick and has a “plain” resume, stands out?

At the election meeting on the 16th local time, three candidates-former Union Party Parliamentary Party Chairman Mertz, Bundestag Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Rotgen and Raschelt all delivered speeches before voting. Rashet took out his “lucky charm”-his father’s badge. His father was a miner and worked in a mine 1,000 meters underground every day.

Raschelt said: “Father told me that when you are in the well, it doesn’t matter where your colleagues come from or what they believe in. What’s important is that everyone trusts each other… I may not be a person with perfect performance, but I am Armin Raschelt, a person you can trust.”

In 2018, Merkel, who was in the fourth prime minister’s term, announced that she would no longer serve as chairman of the CDU and would no longer run for federal prime minister. Afterwards, Annegrett Kramp-Karenbauer became the new chairman of the CDU party, but due to the election of the governor of Thuringia, she announced her resignation in February last year.

Subsequently, the above three candidates announced their competition for the chairmanship of the CDU. However, due to the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the party congress that was supposed to be held in April last year was finally postponed to January this year.

Hu Chunchun, associate professor of the Institute of German Studies at Tongji University and deputy director of the German Research Center, said in an interview with a reporter from China Business News that Raschelt has rich ruling experience and is supported by Merkel. Raschelt is the current governor of North Rhine-Westphalia, and his domestic and foreign policies are in the same line as Merkel.

“However, the election of Raschelt as party leader does not mean that he can finally be nominated as the prime minister of the party. It will depend on his ability to balance the party’s power, his performance in the fight against the epidemic, and continue to gain high-level support from the party. “He said.

In September this year, Germany will hold elections for the Bundestag. As the world faces major changes, Germany will usher in the first leadership transition in 16 years.

“Male version of Merkel”?

Rachelt, 59 years old, became governor of North Rhine-Westphalia in 2017, which is the most populous and wealthy federal state in Germany. He has successively served as a member of the Bundestag, a member of the European Parliament, a minister of the government of North Rhine-Westphalia, the chairman of the North Rhine-Westphalia Committee of the CDU and the vice chairman of the National Committee of the CDU.

Yang Jiepu, an associate researcher of the Institute of European Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and director of the China-Germany Cooperation Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with a reporter from China Business News that Raschelt’s advantages are: Member’s approval. Secondly, Merkel’s prestige in the party may have played a role. Raschelt’s political line has always been consistent with Merkel. Although Merkel did not explicitly support any of the three candidates, the election of Raschelt is more conducive to the continuation of Merkel’s political line.

In the CDU party, Raschelt holds similar political views to Merkel, adheres to a moderate middle line, hopes to promote social integration and oppose polarization.

In terms of domestic policies, Lashet proposed to rebuild economic vitality, accelerate digitalization, emphasize labor rights, and promote the integration of immigrants into German society. In terms of foreign policy, he supports European integration, advocates German-American cooperation, and adheres to multilateralism.

Germany is the largest economy in the European Union, and its political elections affect the nerves of European financial markets. This year is Germany’s “Super Election Year”. Not only will general elections be held in September, but also local elections in many important states will be held throughout the year. How will changes in German politics affect the European market?

Yang Jiepu believes that Merkel is still serving as prime minister, and the election of the chairman of the CDU will not have much impact on the stability of the government. However, after the next Bundestag election, the election results may bring some uncertainty to the stability of German politics and European integration.

“At present, the Coalition Party is more likely to win the election, and the Green Party may become the party with the second most votes. This will likely be a coalition of the’black and green’ parties in power. However, if the Coalition and the Green If the party has less than half of the votes, there will be more possibilities for forming a cabinet, and the situation will become more complicated.” Yang Jiepu said.

Obstacles in being nominated as prime minister

The German general election adopts the Bundestag election system in which voters vote for political parties. In theory, the winning party is entitled to form a cabinet, and its candidate for prime minister will become prime minister. If the CDU can obtain the right to form a cabinet in the next general election, Raschelt is expected to become a candidate nominated by the CDU.

However, this is only a “convention” of the various parties, and the final decision will be made after consultations between the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU). Within the Coalition Party, popular candidates are also the chairman of the CSW Union as the governor of Bavaria Soder and the current Minister of Health Span. According to the above two experts interviewed by China Business News, being elected party leader does not automatically nominate a candidate for prime minister, and Rachel’s nomination may be hindered.

A major feature of the German electoral system is the “consensus politics” within the political parties. Hu Chunchun told China Business News that the victory of a certain political party’s prime minister candidate is not only determined by the verbal verbal verbalization in front of the TV, but the final determination of the candidate through negotiation within the party. For the future CDU prime minister candidates, the first thing to do is to balance the interests of the party, including gaining the support of Merkel, who is now so prestigious. If Raschelt wants to be nominated successfully, he must do his homework on the above two issues.

Hu Chunchun believes that Rashet’s top priority is to ensure that the CDU achieves good results in the two state assembly elections in March, which will be held in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate. get on. If the local election wins, it will benefit Rashet, and vice versa it will benefit its potential opponent Soder.

Yang Jiepu said that the candidate for prime minister is decided by the Executive Committee of the Alliance Party, which will consider the candidates’ political line, ability to govern, and public support. “As far as the Executive Committee of the Coalition Party is concerned, it has always been very prudent to nominate candidates for prime minister.” She said.

Rashet has rich experience in governing and has won support from Merkel and Karen Bauer. His biggest shortcoming lies in the sluggish public support.

According to data from the German polling agency Infratest dimap in January, 27% of Germans think Rachelt is suitable to be prime minister, while Soder has a support rate of 55%.

Yang Jiepu said that on the issue of prime ministerial candidates, Rachelt’s approval rate is much lower than that of Spane and Soder. When nominating prime minister candidates, the Coalition needs to consider the preferences of voters. After all, the SPD candidate for prime minister Scholz is supported by public opinion. The rate is not low.

Yang Jiepu also said that whether to participate in the competition for prime minister candidates depends on the wishes of several popular candidates. On this issue, Raschelt himself has a strong will. He once said: “A governor who can successfully govern in a federal state with a population of 18 million can also serve as prime minister.”

What are the odds of Soder and Spoon?

Laschete’s potential opponents Soder and Span not only received widespread support from voters. According to Dimepo’s survey data, they are also the second and third most influential political figures after Merkel.

Acting decisively during the epidemic and achieving good results in fighting the epidemic are important reasons for their support. At several briefings on the epidemic, Sodell had a clear mindset and better conveyed his confidence and determination to fight the epidemic. Span also created his experienced image during the fight against the epidemic. However, due to recent vaccine transportation issues, Spun’s current support rate has dropped slightly.

For Sodell, Yang Jiepu believes that Sodell’s personal ability to govern is outstanding and the poll support rate is high, but the key problem is that he is only the chairman of a party in Bavaria, the CSU League. If Soder wants to become prime minister, he must not only persuade CDU and CDU party support, but also have the charm of mobilizing the people of Germany. Historically, the influence of two politicians in the CSW has expanded from the Bavarian level to the federal level, but they ultimately failed to become the Federal Chancellor.

Hu Chunchun believes that the poll data provided by the media must be viewed dialectically. Soder’s current high support rate is due to the prominent image of decisiveness and courage conveyed by the media during the epidemic. But Soder wants to become the final candidate of the Prime Minister of the Alliance Party to pass two hurdles: First, the leader of the CDU has the priority to become the prime minister of the Alliance as usual; second, if there is a dispute with the leader of the CDU, Then the CDU and CSU need to reach a consensus. Once Soder can cross these two hurdles and become the coalition party’s prime minister candidate, then his governing details, political program, and personal life will be magnified by the public, and whether he can withstand the test remains to be seen.

For Span, the above two experts agree. Span’s strengths are: first, he is young and can represent the new generation of forces; second, he has outstanding performance in the fight against the epidemic and has a good foundation of public opinion; third, he has become a political partner with Raschelt, reflecting the policies of the current ruling party.

“However, it is precisely because of his youth that his thinking is not comprehensive enough. Recently, Shi Pan has frequently been exposed to some scandals, which may become a stumbling block to the top of his power.” Hu Chunchun told the CBN reporter.