The Ministry of Economy envisages a rebound in GDP of 8% in 2021, “excluding the effect of the stimulus plan to come”, in a document preparatory to the public finance policy debate posted online on Friday.
“The gradual recovery started in mid-2020 would continue in 2021, supported by government measures,” said the ministry in this document, adding, however, that “GDP in 2021 will remain about 4% lower than its level of 2019 “.
These forecasts are more optimistic than those of the IMF (+ 7.3%) or the Banque de France (+ 7%).
In the Bercy services scenario, the recovery “would be driven by the dynamism of domestic demand”, with a rebound in household consumption fueled “by the vigorous recovery in consumption observed from May 11”, the beginning of deconfinement , and by “the resistance of purchasing power” largely “preserved” by the support measures taken by the government.
“Falling” investment
On the other hand, investment “would remain more significantly behind its previous level”, the uncertainty on the financial and economic prospects “continuing to weigh”, still estimates Bercy, which anticipates an increase in investment growth of 20%, the latter remaining “significantly lower (s) than (their) high level of 2019”.
“Trade would recover,” said Bercy, expecting a sharp increase in “exports of goods as well as (of) imports”.
Note that “tourism would recover more partially, remaining throughout the year below the levels of 2019, reflecting a persistence of uncertainties”.
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