Although oil prices on world markets have gone up and the Polish zloty has recently weakened compared to the dollar, fuel prices in Poland are still surprisingly low and can exceed the limit of PLN 6 per liter. The reason is a noticeable reduction in wholesale prices by the most important player on the market, PKN Orlen. Meanwhile, as fuel expert Dawid Czopek emphasized in an interview with Business Insider, diesel oil should cost approximately PLN 7.5 under normal conditions.
Relatively recently, we have already witnessed the control of fuel prices by the government of Viktor Orban. In November 2021, in order to protect Hungarians against inflation, a fuel price cap of 480 forints (about PLN 6 at that time) was introduced in Hungary.
However, withdrawing from rigid pricing turned out to be painful. In December last year, the Hungarian government lifted the limit at the request of MOL, the largest domestic concern. The decision itself was turbulent – the conference at which the information was presented started at 10:30 p.m. The limit came into force half an hour later. Prices have gone up dramatically by approximately PLN 2 per liter.
Chaos broke out – queues appeared at stations for fear of further price increases, and in many places there was simply no fuel. The government explained the problems by pointing out that the EU embargo on oil from Russia was to blame. Production limitations at the Danube refinery near Budapest, which is key to the Hungarian fuel system, were also a problem.
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A repeat of Hungary?
Can we expect a similar scenario in Poland? Orlen’s president, Daniel Obajtek, has repeatedly criticized Hungary’s actions. “The fuel disaster in Hungary is the result of too much interference in the principles of the free market. Now there is a shortage of fuel there and it is more expensive than at Polish stations. I warned against such a scenario when opposition politicians called for artificially lowering fuel prices,” he wrote on Twitter at the time.
Urszula Cieślak, fuel market analyst at Reflex, points out that we will not escape from price increases. And we will have to face them, most likely before the elections. — I think wholesale prices may start to rise before the election, perhaps as early as next week. It seems that the key to understanding the situation is not only the elections, but also lower inflation, which the Central Statistical Office estimates at 8.2%. – says.
However, this does not necessarily mean a repeat of Hungary. — In fact, there may be a situation in which wholesale prices will increase by 15-20 groszy on a weekly basis, since previously we saw reductions of 30 groszy. within a few days. However, I think that in total the increases will be spread over several weeks. It is difficult to expect that prices will increase by one zloty or even by PLN 50. – says the expert.
Temporary problems at stations
However, it cannot be ruled out that the introduced increases will result in queues at stations. Nowadays, some stations experience local supply shortages. However, the analyst emphasizes that even if such problems appear, they will most likely be temporary. — I don’t think the stations will run out of fuel. It can be observed that sometimes there is a temporary shortage of diesel fuel at the pylons, but there are no reasons to believe that this will be a permanent and mass phenomenon – he emphasizes.
— You can try to deal with queues at stations by introducing some form of limit on one refueling, but I don’t think it will be necessary. Maybe the initial transitional period, when the increases start, will involve an increase, but after all, once someone fills up the tank, he or she will not refuel after a few liters of fuel burned in the following days – he estimates.
2023-09-29 12:31:54
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