“Four Miracles Needed for Ukraine to Successfully Push Out Russian Forces: Expert Analysis”

Ukraine needs four miracles to successfully push out the Russian forces, said Belgian Armed Forces Colonel Roger Husen, a former member of his country’s military command, quoted by local media and BTA.

The expert explains that success will be associated with achieving a result that has not been seen in the last century of modern wars. According to him, wars in the 20th century were decided precisely with counteroffensives. According to him, the chances of success in today’s case are not great. According to him, the terrain, the balance of forces and the Russian response will have an impact. The colonel adds that for the Ukrainians to succeed, the four miracles must be fulfilled simultaneously.

First of all, Huzen raises the question of the transition from defense to attack, since until now Ukrainian forces have operated under the cover of buildings and trenches. When they go on the offensive, they will be under the gaze of enemy surveillance assets and will be under missile and air fire. The Ukrainians will have to cross the Dnieper and other places cut by bodies of water, over which the bridges have long been destroyed. This will require a lot of equipment and will have to be deployed under constant enemy fire.

Second comes the issue of numerical and military superiority – there has never been a case in which a counteroffensive has been successful when carried out by forces without numerical superiority, nor with more and better artillery or air force (Air Force). According to Huzen, even Western troops, fully prepared and equipped, would have difficulty overcoming the defenses built by Russia. At the same time, the Ukrainians must operate without sufficient air defense, with a shortage of ammunition, with a mixture of new and old armored vehicles, with fighters – full-time and conscripts – without experience in complex large-scale offensive operations.

The third point is Russia’s response – whether it will observe the actions indifferently, or whether it will be able to redistribute its forces and retaliate with another offensive of its own. Huzen recommends that Ukraine continue to strike at the enemy’s rear by disrupting frontline supply chains. He notes that it is not clear for now whether Russia will call for a new emergency mobilization.

Finally, the expert points to the need to maintain support for Kyiv, even if progress in recapturing captured Ukrainian lands is slow or partial. Husen reports that the expected Ukrainian offensive is raising morale and spreading Russian forces, reducing their ability to strike. At the same time, delaying the Ukrainian offensive could destabilize the troops and further worsen if the stated objectives are not achieved. According to the expert, the consequences will be bad not only for the Ukrainian troops, but also for the spirit of the Ukrainian citizens, and this is decisive for the resistance. Husen recalls that Russian President Vladimir Putin has already declared time as his ally and expressed an expectation that the West will tire of war.