8 hours ago
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Guo Taiming declared that the presidential candidate is “who but me”.
Less than half a year before Taiwan’s presidential election, Terry Gou, the 72-year-old founder of Hon Hai-Foxconn, a well-known electronics manufacturer, announced his independent candidacy.
After Guo Taiming announced his willingness to run in Taipei on Monday (August 28), the general election officially entered the “four-legged supervision” situation, that is, Hou Youyi, a candidate for the Chinese Kuomintang in the opposition blue and white camp, Ke Wenzhe, a candidate for the People’s Party, and a non-party candidate. There are three people from Guo Taiming, who challenged the green camp’s ruling DPP candidate and current vice president Lai Qingde.
Guo Taiming, who had publicly promised to support Hou Youyi, emphasized at the press conference that he ran for the election to play a leading role in promoting the integration of the Blue and White opposition camps, saying that “if the opposition is not integrated, it will be cheap for Lai Qingde.”
However, this move has caused further splits in the pan-blue camp. The Kuomintang criticized Gou for not being honest, and warned that if people in the party help Guo in the election, they will be dealt with severely by the Party Disciplinary Committee.
A number of political scholars analyzed to BBC Chinese that if Terry Gou insists on running to the end, it will only allow DPP candidate Lai Qingde to “lie down and win”, which is not happy for Beijing.
Guo Taiming’s self-reported origin of the election
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Scholars believe that Guo Taiming chose to announce his candidacy at the last moment before the deadline, which shows that he has been waiting for the integration of blue and white.
Guo Taiming held a press conference in the name of the “Mainstream Public Opinion Alliance” directly opposite the Presidential Office in Taipei City, which used to be the Zhang Rongfa Foundation. Among them, the only entrepreneur with management ability and nearly 50 years of practical experience, “Looking at Taiwan’s political arena, who else can I have?”.
He mentioned that since the DPP has been in power for more than seven years, politics, economy, national defense, and diplomacy have all come to the edge of a cliff. Last year, the public opinion in the nine-in-one general election clearly expressed dissatisfaction. This time the presidential election must “remove the DPP.” And to promote the rotation of political parties, but unfortunately in the past three months or so, the opposition forces still have their own calculations, and the integration work has not progressed at all. I am afraid that it will be “cheap Lai Qingde”. Power starts to integrate, “public opinion is always greater than the party’s will, and public welfare is always greater than self-interest.”
He claimed, “There is no need to elect, but the middle voice represented by Guo Taiming cannot be absent.” He hopes to become the greatest common denominator of unity, and will continue to invite the other two candidates from the opposition camp, Hou Youyi and Ke Wenzhe, to sit down together. “You drink coffee, I drink milk tea, and discuss national affairs together.”
Guo Taiming also said: “I implore the people of Taiwan to give me four years. I promise that I will bring peace to the Taiwan Strait for the next 50 years and lay the deepest foundation of mutual trust between the two sides.”
“I will definitely not let Taiwan become the next Ukraine.”
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BBC Chinese will introduce to you who are the possible contenders in Taiwan’s presidential election in January 2024.
When asked whether he would run for the election to the end, Guo Taiming only responded that the most important thing now is whether the opposition wants to win and how to win. If they want to win, they must integrate. When asked by the media whether he would be willing to be his deputy if the opposition was integrated, Guo only said that the most urgent task now is for the presidential candidates from the Blue and White parties to sit down with him and share their governance philosophy and winning formula.
Guo Taiming must collect the joint signatures of about 290,000 voters on November 2 to qualify as an independent candidate. According to the schedule announced by Taiwan’s Central Election Commission, applications for the election of the president and vice president will be accepted from September 13th to September 17th, and joint signatures will be accepted from September 19th to November 2nd.
Zhang Junhao, a professor of political science at Tunghai University in Taiwan, pointed out to BBC Chinese that there are only two weeks left before September 17, and Guo Taiming chose to announce his candidacy at the last moment before the deadline, which shows that he has been waiting for the integration of blue and white.
“I can’t wait, so I have to put pressure on it at the last moment. It depends on what Ke Wenzhe or the Kuomintang will do in the next two weeks.”
Ye Yaoyuan, chair professor of international studies at the University of St. Thomas in the United States, also analyzed BBC Chinese. Guo Taiming is now running for the election, hoping that Ke Wenzhe or Hou Youyi will give up the presidential seat for him, and use his own momentum to ask the two parties to cooperate with him. , so that he can represent one of the two parties for president.
Ye Yaoyuan said: “It is a concept that there is a 20%+20% chance to compete with Lai Qingde (40% support).”
Pan-blue split may intensify
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Guo Taiming once promised to do his best to support Hou Youyi (front left) to win the election.
Although Gou claimed to unite the opposition camp, after he announced his candidacy, he immediately expanded the division of the pan-blue camp.
The Kuomintang issued a statement expressing high regret, pointing out that Guo Taiming is a follower of Guan Gong, “Guan Gong has the spirit of loyalty, loyalty to the country, righteousness, integrity and commitment… Only by obeying the promises I made is the real promise. Guo Taiming, who is a follower of Guan Gong, will not understand”, and expressed his belief that Guo “will still return to the team in the end and unite with the mainstream public opinion that delisted the DPP, and support the KMT and Hou Youyi to delist the DPP together, rather than a kinship and hatred Recommended to the DPP and Lai Qingde.”
The KMT also emphasized that if people in the party publicly stand for Terry Gou, mobilize street sweeps and other public election campaigns, they all violate the “Code of Conduct for Party Members” and will be dealt with severely by the responsible units.
Zuo Zhengdong, a professor of political science at National Taiwan University, told BBC Chinese that the outside world had long expected Terry Gou to run for the election, but after he made the official announcement, the online groups of pan-blue voters were immediately “sorrowful”, expressing their disappointment and indignation. It even said that there will be no votes in the general election. He pointed out that if the willingness of pan-blue voters to vote continues to slump, DPP candidate Lai Qingde will be elected with a good number of votes, and the party rotation expected by the blue camp will not be realized.
Professor Zuo Zhengdong said: “For the blue camp, voters’ reluctance to vote is a disguised recommendation for Lai Qingde. This is the most pessimistic situation.”
“The most optimistic scenario is that voters’ willingness to vote is low, which instead stimulates the cooperation of Hou Youyi and Ke Wenzhe. Faced with the crisis of being marginalized, Guo Taiming will return to the team in order to protect himself-this possibility is not high, but it is not impossible. It still depends on the wisdom of the parties involved and the conditions of the general environment.”
Guo Taiming quit the party after losing to Han Guoyu in the Kuomintang presidential primary election in 2019. He participated in the 2024 Kuomintang presidential primary election in April this year, but was not nominated. The Kuomintang eventually recruited Hou Youyi, the mayor of New Taipei City, to run.
Guo Taiming publicly announced on May 17 that he would do his best to support Hou Youyi’s victory in the election. However, since he returned to Taiwan from the United States in early August, he has held campaigns in various places. He was accused of preparing to run independently, which made his integrity questioned.
KMT candidate Hou Youyi was questioned by the media whether he believed that Guo did not keep his promise and whether the two had talked. Hou Youyi responded that “Chairman Guo” had made an agreement with him not to speak to the outside world.
When asked if he felt that Guo Taiming used war to force peace, Hou Youyi said that he was a presidential candidate recruited by the Kuomintang. After being approved by the National Congress, his attitude towards the election has never changed, and he will shoulder the responsibility and move forward bravely.
Will Hou and Ke integrate with Guo?
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Polls show that Ke Wenzhe ranks second overall.
According to recent polls, Lai Qingde’s support rate is stable and continues to lead, Ke Wenzhe ranks second overall, Hou Youyi ranks third, and Guo Taiming’s support rate is the lowest.
Professor Zhang Junhao from Tunghai University analyzed to BBC Chinese that Lai Qingde’s support rate has recently exceeded 40%. Even if he is elected, he does not have any political party or congressional resources behind him. “Then how do political parties rotate?”
Professor Zhang judged that the chances of the Kuomintang and Guo Taiming being integrated are very small, because the party chairman Zhu Lilun’s heart is not in the presidential election, but in the congressional elections held at the same time. The Kuomintang, this is in line with Zhu Lilun’s original plan, and he has little motivation to integrate.”
In contrast, Zhang Junhao believes that Ke Wenzhe’s attitude may be more friendly, and “Guo Ke’s partner” is more likely. “Polls show that under the four-legged situation, Ke will lose 7% to 8% of his support because of Guo. If Guo now If we do polls after announcing our candidacy, Ke may lose 10%, so relatively speaking, Ke is more motivated to integrate with Guo.”
Song Wendi, a lecturer at the Asia Pacific College of the Australian National University, also analyzed that because Ke Wenzhe and Guo Taiming have many overlapping supporters, if Hou Youyi’s election strategy is handled well, Hou may be able to reap the benefits of fishing in the long run. “If Guo Taiming’s participation in the election ends up hurting Ke Wenzhe, then Hou will become the only hopeful candidate in the opposition camp.”
The spokesperson of the People’s Party said that the democratic society respects Guo Taiming’s right to run for election, but noticed that many media raised different questions during the press conference. These questions are also of concern to the public, so Guo Taiming will continue to persuade voters.
The People’s Party also emphasized that the party chairman Ke Wenzhe is still the most powerful opposition candidate in the current polls, and has always had a very stable support force. “So we will continue to work hard and integrate as much as possible.”
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DPP candidate Lai Ching-te has about 40% support.
Professor Ye Yaoyuan from the University of St. Thomas in the United States told BBC Chinese that he believes that the possibility of Hou and Ke backing down is not high. First of all, the Kuomintang Central Committee will not let Guo Taiming be an outsider and destroy the distribution and operation of the party’s power structure.
As for Ke Wenzhe, who has a good relationship with Guo Taiming, it is also difficult to compromise because of the interests of the political party: “The People’s Party is a one-person party. The People’s Party is only possible because of Ke Wenzhe. If Guo wants to replace Ke, the People’s Party will lose its spiritual leader. Given Ke Wenzhe’s personality, would he be willing to be a deputy? I find it difficult.”
Ye Yaoyuan said bluntly that if Guo Taiming insisted on running to the end, and Hou and Ke did not back down, “now there is a conclusion that Lai Qingde won.”
In fact, as soon as the news of Guo Taiming’s candidacy came out on Monday morning, a large number of netizens left messages saying “Congratulations to Lai Qingde”, “You can win the election while lying down”, “Lai: Open the champagne immediately”.
DPP spokesperson Zhang Zhihao said that this is the Kuomintang’s family affairs. The DPP has no special comment. It also pointed out that Taiwan is a democratic country. As long as they meet the qualification requirements, every citizen can stand for election and respect his decision. But the DPP also hopes that all camps can focus on rational policy debate.
Zhang Zhihao said: “Smearing rumors without factual basis to smear attacks, blindly criticizing political saliva, and even manipulating the fear of war to threaten the people of the country will only further divide society, which is completely unnecessary.”
Guo Taiming’s Chinese Interests and “One China” Standpoint
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Foxconn made Guo Taiming one of the most well-known Taiwanese businessmen in mainland China.
Guo Taiming was born in Banqiao, Taipei in 1950, and his ancestral home is Shanxi. He founded Hon Hai in 1974 with NT$100,000 (equivalent to NT$393,900; US$96,800 today). He initially processed and produced plastic products, and later entered the computer technology industry. In 1985, he founded Foxconn, a subsidiary of the company. , set up factories in mainland China, and expanded to become the world’s largest foundry in more than ten years. At its peak, it had more than 1.3 million employees in mainland China, and its customers included technology giants such as Apple (Apple) and Hewlett-Packard (HP).
Hon Hai currently has as many as 45 factories in the mainland. Guo Taiming was asked at a press conference on Monday whether the group’s investment on the other side would be threatened once he was elected president. He responded, “If my property can be exchanged for If he doesn’t fight Taiwan, I am willing to sacrifice”, and emphasized that he has never been controlled by the CCP, “I will not be threatened”.
Hon Hai subsequently issued a statement stating that since Hon Hai was listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange in 1991, there are currently more than 800,000 shareholders, and the company itself is jointly owned by all investors at home and abroad. Great, no longer participate in the daily management of the company.
Guo Taiming wrote an article in the US “Washington Post” last month, saying that Beijing, Washington, and Taipei are all responsible for the current cross-strait tensions, and criticized the DPP and its presidential candidate Lai Qingde for saying that the “1992 Consensus” must be eliminated. quick. He argued that Taiwan needs to negotiate directly with Beijing on the basis of the “one-China framework” in order to truly ease the tension.
Political scientist Zhang Junhao said that Guo Taiming has a strong connection with China and represents China’s influence. “This is a secret in everyone’s heart, and now it is slowly becoming an open secret.” However, he believes that rather than saying that the CCP instructed Guo to run for the election, it is better to say that the CCP took the opportunity of his candidacy to verify how big the “one China” market is in Taiwanese society.
National Taiwan University professor Zuo Zhengdong believes that there are many people who are more sympathetic to Beijing on cross-strait positions, but the point is not what they advocate, but whether they can be elected. “For the CCP, it is absolutely not desirable for the DPP to be in power for a long time, but Guo Taiming’s election will only benefit the DPP to continue to govern.”
He continued that the CCP’s preference for individual candidates in Taiwan’s presidential election will often have counterproductive effects, and it is not what most voters want to see.
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Taiwanese businessman Li Mengju lost contact after entering Shenzhen from Hong Kong in August 2019. As Hong Kong’s anti-extradition movement was at its peak, his disappearance aroused concerns in Taiwanese society about his being detained by the Chinese government.
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2023-08-28 14:36:49
