In a longer interview with BBC says Andrei Illarionov, Putin’s former economic adviser, that there are instruments that Europe can use to put an end to the acts of war that are now shaking the world.
Although harsh sanctions have been imposed from countries around the world, Illarionov believes it is far from enough to turn Putin around.
Illarionov believes Putin blundered before the invasion because he did not take the threats from other countries to cut energy from Russia seriously.
“He did not take it seriously,” Putin’s former adviser said.
– Will be stopped
Illarionov believes that if Europe actually introduces a ban on buying oil and gas from Russia, then it will have a big effect on Putin.
– If they impose an embargo, then I bet that the Russian military operations in Ukraine will probably be stopped within a month or two, he says, adding that it will probably be very effective.
– DEPENDENT: Germany is one of the European countries that is most dependent on gas from Russia. Photo: INA FASSBENDER / AFP
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– It is one of the very effective instruments that the western countries are still in possession of.
Furthermore, Illarionov believes that Putin before the invasion had calculated that the Russian economy would suffer a small setback as a result of the invasion, and that it shows where his priorities lie.
– His territorial and imperialist ambitions are much more important than anything else, including the livelihood of the Russian people, the economic situation in the country and even the economic condition of his government.
– Painful
Despite sanctions and a desire not to buy oil and gas from Russia, Europe continues to do so. according to BBC Much of Russia’s huge oil and gas revenues come from EU countries. According to the BBC, the EU imports 40 percent of its gas and 27 percent of its oil from Russia.
Jarand Rystad is head of Rystad Energi and energy analyst. He tells TV 2 that a European ban on the purchase of Russian oil and gas will be painful, but not impossible.
– You will then have to take a number of measures such as driving a smaller car and using less oil in the industry. In this way, the offers will be able to adapt to the demand, says Rystad.
Thina Margrethe Saltvedt is chief analyst at Nordea. She is clear that there is now pressure to move in the direction of a ban.
– This is what largely finances Putin’s war machine.
On the other hand, she is aware that there will be a greater chance that imports of Russian oil, as opposed to gas, can be stopped.
– The oil is more flexible, and it is easier to find alternative solutions. The gas, on the other hand, is transported through pipelines, which makes it less flexible, says Saltvedt.
– PUTIN’S WAR MACHINE: Nordea’s chief analyst Thina Margrethe Saltvedt is aware that it is Europe’s purchase of Russian oil and gas that finances Putin’s war machine. Photo: Frode Sunde / TV 2
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Six countries get all their gas from Russia. Of these, Germany is the most dependent.
– Cynical
But several of these countries use only gas for house heating, not electricity. Rystad believes Europe can do without Russian gas for the next six months.
– Now we are entering a summer season, and then you have six months to find an alternative.
But it will have major consequences, says chief analyst Saltvedt.
– There are no alternatives at the moment. But if Russia continues to step up, the EU must consider it. Especially if you can not stop the war in other ways, she says.
– SHOULD TRY: Energy analyst Jarand Rystad believes Europe should try to cut out Russian oil and gas completely. Photo: Håkon Mosvold Larsen / NTB
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However, Norway is self-sufficient in both oil and gas, and will therefore not be directly affected by a European ban.
– We will do very well, really much better. Cynically speaking, it would have been a great advantage for Norway, but we will not feel a great triumph, because we have a strong moral conscience about the problems it will cause the other countries, says Rystad.
– Should do it
– How critical will a ban be for Russia?
– They will lose 60 percent of their import revenues. They will still succeed, because they can sell oil to China and India, as well as a number of other markets. But it will be very painful, says the energy analyst.
Rystad is clear on what he thinks Europe should do.
– There is still a potential to work harder. So I think Europe should try to do that. If you stop only half, the prices will only be higher, he says.
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